Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. Core Views of the Report - A shares showed a volatile trend, with the photovoltaic industry chain dropping due to rumors, and the banking and insurance sectors strengthening. The strategy for A shares is to adopt a volatile mindset and stay on the sidelines. For treasury bond futures, there is still upward momentum for bonds, and attention should be paid to the rhythm [8][9]. - Black commodities are expected to oscillate at the bottom, with a mid - term strategy of shorting on rallies. The steel and iron ore market is affected by supply - demand fundamentals and policy expectations, and iron ore may face supply - demand imbalance in the future [11][12]. - In the non - ferrous and new materials sector, zinc prices are high but the spot market has weak buying interest; lithium carbonate has good short - term fundamentals but may face a price correction in the first quarter of next year; industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to continue to oscillate [18][19][23]. - For agricultural products, cotton and sugar are under supply pressure and are expected to be weak, while eggs are in the process of capacity reduction, and apples are expected to oscillate strongly. Corn and dates face supply pressure, and the pig market is expected to be weak [25][27][33]. - In the energy and chemical sector, oil prices are expected to be weakly oscillating due to supply - demand imbalance. Fuel oil, plastics, and other products are affected by factors such as supply - demand and cost, and their prices are expected to follow the trend of oil prices or oscillate weakly [35][37][40]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - Rumors about the cancellation of the polysilicon storage platform were refuted. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association is promoting "anti - involution" work, and JinkoSolar clarified relevant rumors [6]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange International Investors Conference opened. The CSRC will deepen comprehensive reforms in investment and financing, strengthen strategic force reserves and market - stabilizing mechanisms, and optimize the structure of listed companies [6]. - CATL's fifth - generation lithium iron phosphate battery has been mass - produced, and the "Chocolate Battery Swap Alliance" is expanding [6]. - The US House of Representatives will vote on a temporary appropriation bill, which may end the government shutdown. The government shutdown may reduce Q4 economic growth by two percentage points [6]. - The US Treasury Secretary may announce "substantial" tariff news, and there are plans for tariff exemptions and tax rebates [6]. - There are differences within the Fed on interest rate policies, with some members having different views on interest rate cuts [6]. - The US Treasury will maintain the scale of Treasury bond auctions, and the issuance of long - term bonds may increase [6]. - The issuance scale of global investment - grade bonds has reached a new high, and oil prices have fallen due to concerns about supply surplus [6]. - Precious metal futures generally rose, driven by factors such as the end of the US government shutdown and geopolitical risks [6]. - OPEC expects the oil market to balance in 2026 and maintains its forecast for global oil demand growth [6]. - The Simandou iron ore project has been officially put into production, with large reserves and high - grade ore [6]. Macro Finance - A shares oscillated, with the photovoltaic industry chain falling and the banking and insurance sectors rising. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.07% to 4000.14 points, and the full - day trading volume was 1.96 trillion yuan. The strategy is to be cautious and wait [8]. - In the treasury bond futures market, the capital situation was balanced, and bond prices fluctuated slightly. Inflation showed some improvement, but the sustainability of inflation repair needs further observation. The decline in exports in October was affected by multiple factors, and the strategy is to pay attention to the rhythm of bond price increases [8][9]. Black - Steel and Iron Ore: Steel and iron ore prices oscillated. Steel prices at low levels led to better trading, driving up raw material prices. In the future, the industry may return to fundamental trading. From a fundamental perspective, demand for building materials is weak, while demand for coils is relatively good. Supply may decline, and iron ore may face supply - demand imbalance in the future. The mid - term strategy is to short on rallies [11][12]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Futures prices oscillated and declined. In the short term, supply may increase, and demand for steel is weak, but thermal coal prices provide some support. The price is expected to continue to oscillate and decline in the short term [14]. - Ferroalloys: In the medium and long term, the over - supply situation of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is difficult to improve, and the strategy is to short on rallies. In the short term, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [15]. - Soda Ash and Glass: Soda ash production decreased slightly, and prices were adjusted up in some areas. Glass prices were lowered in some regions after weak sales. The current strategy is to stay on the sidelines [15][16]. Non - Ferrous and New Materials - Zinc: Zinc prices were high, but the spot market had weak buying interest. The inventory showed a slight increase. It is recommended to hold short positions at high prices [18]. - Lithium Carbonate: The short - term fundamentals are good, but there may be a price correction in the first quarter of next year. It is advisable to buy on dips [19]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon has no prominent supply - demand contradictions and is expected to oscillate. Polysilicon is affected by policy expectations and supply - demand contradictions and is also expected to oscillate [22][23]. Agricultural Products - Cotton: Cotton prices were affected by factors such as the decline in ICE cotton prices and the supply - demand situation. There is supply pressure in the short term, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [25][26]. - Sugar: Global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus. Domestic sugar prices are affected by import costs and domestic production. It is advisable to wait and see before the large - scale arrival of new sugar [27][28]. - Eggs: The egg market is in the process of capacity reduction. Spot prices may be slightly stronger, but the supply - demand pattern is still loose. It is recommended to short near - month contracts on rallies [28][29]. - Apples: Apple prices are expected to oscillate strongly, with attention to factors such as inventory and consumption [30]. - Corn: Corn prices showed a short - term rebound, but there is still supply pressure. Attention should be paid to the selling pressure in November and the release of policy wheat [30][31]. - Dates: The spot market was weak, and the futures price was under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [32]. - Pigs: The pig market has supply pressure and stable demand. It is recommended to short near - month contracts on rallies [33]. Energy and Chemical - Crude Oil: Oil prices are expected to be weakly oscillating due to supply - demand imbalance. OPEC+ measures have limited support for oil prices [35]. - Fuel Oil: Fuel oil prices follow the trend of oil prices, with a supply - loose and demand - weak pattern. The short - term focus is on supply - side concerns after sanctions [36]. - Plastics: Polyolefins have large supply pressure and are expected to oscillate weakly, but cost support may limit the decline [37][40]. - Rubber: Rubber is expected to oscillate, with a short - term strategy of going long on dips with stop - losses [41]. - Synthetic Rubber: Synthetic rubber is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and it is advisable to short on rallies [42]. - Methanol: Methanol prices are volatile, with large supply pressure. It is recommended to adopt a weakly oscillating strategy for near - month contracts and a long - position strategy for far - month contracts after a rebound [43][44]. - Caustic Soda: Caustic soda prices are expected to be short - term weakly bearish, but there may be support at low levels, and it is advisable to go long on dips in the medium term [45]. - Asphalt: Asphalt prices are expected to have larger fluctuations, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game [47]. - Polyester Industry Chain: The polyester industry chain is expected to be weakly running due to weak cost support and market sentiment [48]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: LPG has abundant supply in the long - term and may be strongly oscillating in the short - term due to the approaching peak season [49]. - Gummed Printing Paper: The spot market is stable, and if price increases are implemented, it is advisable to go long on dips with risk control [50]. - Pulp: Pulp is expected to oscillate widely, and it is recommended to observe the digestion of old warehouse receipts and spot trading [51]. - Logs: Log prices are expected to be under pressure, with a supply - demand weak balance in the future [52]. - Urea: The urea market is affected by export factors, and it is recommended to wait and see for specific policies [53][54].
中泰期货晨会纪要-20251113
Zhong Tai Qi Huo·2025-11-13 01:50