国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20251113

Report Overview - Date: November 13, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views - Palm oil: Limited rebound height, beware of a second dip [2] - Soybean oil: U.S. soybeans have stabilized, continue to widen the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [2] - Soybean meal: U.S. soybeans closed higher, may follow a rebound and fluctuate [2] - Soybean: Spot prices are stable, the market fluctuates [2] - Corn: Short - term bullish [2] - Sugar: Pay attention to the crushing situation in India [2] - Cotton: Lack of upward drivers, futures prices declined slightly [2] - Eggs: Maintain a sideways trend [2] - Live pigs: The spread between fat and standard pigs is weakening, the driving force is emerging [2] - Peanuts: Pay attention to the actions of oil mills [2] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamental Data: Palm oil's daily - closing price was 8,744 yuan/ton with a - 0.30% change, and night - closing price was 8,664 yuan/ton with a - 0.91% change. Soybean oil's daily - closing price was 8,288 yuan/ton with a 0.61% change, and night - closing price was 8,260 yuan/ton with a - 0.34% change [4]. - Macro and Industry News: Malaysia's 2025 palm oil production is expected to exceed 20 million tons, up 3.4% from last year. November production may drop 9% to 1.86 million tons, and December may drop 11% to 1.66 million tons. SGS estimated Malaysia's November 1 - 10 palm oil exports at 190,533 tons, a 49.53% decrease from the previous month [5][6]. - Trend Intensity: Palm oil: - 1; Soybean oil: 0 [10] Soybean Meal and Soybean - Fundamental Data: DCE soybean No.1 2601's daily - closing price was 4,127 yuan/ton with a - 0.02% change, and night - closing price was 4,113 yuan/ton with a - 0.12% change. DCE soybean meal 2601's daily - closing price was 3,059 yuan/ton with a + 0.03% change, and night - closing price was 3,052 yuan/ton with a - 0.03% change [11]. - Macro and Industry News: On November 12, CBOT soybeans closed slightly higher due to position adjustments before the USDA's supply - demand report. Analysts expect U.S. soybean export sales to net increase by 45 - 160 million tons for the week ending November 6 [11][13]. - Trend Intensity: Soybean meal: + 1; Soybean: 0 [13] Corn - Fundamental Data: The Northeast purchase average price was not available, the Jinzhou closing price was 2,160 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), and the Guangdong Shekou price was 2,310 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan). C2601's daily - closing price was 2,177 yuan/ton with a 0.05% change, and night - closing price was 2,179 yuan/ton with a 0.09% change [14]. - Macro and Industry News: Northern corn bulk shipping port prices increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and Guangdong Shekou prices also increased [15]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [18] Sugar - Fundamental Data: The raw sugar price was 14.57 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,760 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5,478 yuan/ton [20]. - Macro and Industry News: The 25/26 Indian sugar export quota is 1.5 million tons. Brazil's October sugar production increased by 1% year - on - year, and exports increased by 13% [20]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [23] Cotton - Fundamental Data: CF2601's daily - closing price was 13,515 yuan/ton with a - 0.33% change, and night - closing price was 13,475 yuan/ton with a - 0.30% change. ICE cotton 3 was 64.82 cents/pound with a - 0.93% change [25]. - Macro and Industry News: Cotton spot trading was good, but the cotton yarn market was sluggish. ICE cotton futures continued to fall, affected by crude oil and awaiting the USDA report [26]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [29] Eggs - Fundamental Data: Egg 2512's closing price was 3,063 yuan/500 kg with a - 3.25 change, and Egg 2601's closing price was 3,543 yuan/500 kg with a - 1.92 change [31]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [31] Live Pigs - Fundamental Data: The Henan spot price was 11,880 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 11,500 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 12,560 yuan/ton. Live pig 2601's price was 11,795 yuan/ton [33]. - Macro and Industry News: The September national feed production was 30.36 million tons, a 3.4% month - on - month increase and a 5% year - on - year increase [34]. - Trend Intensity: - 1 [35] Peanuts - Fundamental Data: The Liaoning 308 general - grade price was 8,900 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan), and the Henan Baisha general - grade price was 7,000 yuan/ton. PK601's closing price was 7,914 yuan/ton with a 0.61% change [37]. - Macro and Industry News: In some peanut - producing areas, the supply was low, and prices were stable or strong. The Kaifeng Yihai Kerry contract price for general - grade peanuts was 8,050 yuan/ton [38][39]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [41]