尿素：估值区间内运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term urea is expected to move in a volatile manner. The upward trend of spot prices is expected to slow down, and incremental warehouse receipts will gradually put pressure on the upside of futures prices. However, policy support provides a floor for prices [2][3]. - The domestic fundamental pressure on urea is relatively high, but policy regulation weakens the downward - driving force. In November, high production and supply will put pressure on prices, but export policies relieve the pressure [3]. - In the fourth quarter, the domestic market is a "buyer's market". The 01 contract has a strong fundamental resistance level at 1700 - 1720 yuan/ton and a support level at 1550 - 1560 yuan/ton [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking Futures Market - Urea's main contract: The closing price was 1,655 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,652 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the trading volume was 231,417 lots, an increase of 89,098 lots; the open interest of the 01 contract was 256,120 lots, an increase of 2,098 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity was 6,958 tons, an increase of 146 tons; the trading volume was 764.753 million yuan, an increase of 295.761 million yuan [1]. - Basis: The Shandong regional basis was - 55, down 25; the Fengxi - to - futures basis was - 155, down 15; the Dongguang - to - futures basis (the cheapest deliverable) was - 45, down 15 [1]. - Spread: The UR01 - UR05 spread was - 73, up 4 [1]. Spot Market - Urea factory prices: Henan Xinlianxin was 1,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; Yankuang Xinjiang was 1,335 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shandong Ruixing was 1,580 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; Shanxi Fengxi was 1,480 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Hebei Dongguang was 1,610 yuan/ton, unchanged; Jiangsu Linggu was 1,670 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - Trader prices: The Shandong region was 1,600 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the Shanxi region was 1,480 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [1]. - Supply - side indicators: The operating rate was 84.07%, down 0.34 percentage points; the daily output was 196,680 tons, down 800 tons [1]. Industry News - On November 12, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.4836 million tons, a decrease of 94,500 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 5.99%. The decline was mainly due to the new export policy, but new orders slowed down after the price increase, and some enterprises' inventory first decreased and then increased [2]. - Provinces with decreased enterprise inventory: Anhui, Hainan, Henan, Heilongjiang, Hubei, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Shanxi, Xinjiang, Yunnan, Chongqing. Provinces with increased enterprise inventory: Hebei, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Liaoning, Qinghai, Shaanxi [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of urea is 0, indicating a neutral view [3].