2025年11月13日：期货市场交易指引-20251113

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures are long - term bullish with a strategy of buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade in a range [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Coking coal and rebar are for range trading; Glass is recommended for selling call options [1][7][8] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper is for taking profits on long positions at high levels or range short - term trading; Aluminum is suggested to buy on dips; Nickel is for waiting and watching or shorting on rallies; Tin, gold, and silver are for range trading [1][10][11][18] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to trade in a range; Soda ash 01 contract is for a short - selling strategy [1][21][23][24][30][32] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade in a range; PTA is in low - level oscillation; Apples are expected to be slightly bullish; Jujubes are expected to be slightly bearish [1][33][34][35] - Agricultural and Livestock: Pigs are facing resistance in rebound; Eggs have limited upside; Corn is in a bottom - building phase; Soybean meal is in range oscillation; Oils are in a bottom - building and rebounding phase [1][37][39][41][43][45] Core Views - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. Some sectors are affected by policy, supply - demand, and international factors. For example, the macro - financial sector is influenced by domestic policies and global risk preferences; the non - ferrous metals sector is affected by international trade and supply - demand fundamentals; the agricultural and livestock sector is related to production capacity, consumption seasons, and policies [5][10][37] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Index Futures: A - share market is in oscillation. Global risk preference and domestic policies fail to boost market sentiment. The market lacks a clear main line, so index futures may oscillate. Long - term bullish with a strategy of buying on dips [5] - Treasury Bonds: The third - quarter monetary policy report maintains a moderately loose tone. The possibility of using total - volume monetary policy tools this year is limited. The bond market is in a range - trading phase, waiting for policy signals from the December Central Economic Work Conference [5] Black Building Materials - Double - Coking: The coal market has tight supply - demand and rising prices. Supply is restricted by mine shutdowns, and demand is improving. It is expected to trade in a range [7] - Rebar: The futures price is in narrow - range oscillation. The market is affected by macro - policies and supply - demand fundamentals. The price has limited downside due to low valuation [7] - Glass: Production cuts are implemented. Supply is reduced, but demand is weak. The inventory is relatively high, and there is delivery pressure. It is recommended to sell call options [8] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price hits a record high and then falls. It is affected by trade, supply, and interest - rate policies. The supply is tightening, but the demand is suppressed by high prices. It is expected to trade in a high - level range [10][11] - Aluminum: The bauxite supply is expected to improve. The production capacity and inventory are changing. The market is over - trading some expectations. It is recommended to strengthen observation [10][11] - Nickel: The new RKAB policy brings uncertainty. The supply is expected to be loose in the long - term. It is recommended to wait and watch or short on rallies [16] - Tin: The production is changing, and the supply is expected to improve. The downstream consumption is weak. It is recommended for range trading [18] - Silver and Gold: Affected by the US government shutdown, employment, and interest - rate policies, they are in oscillation. They are supported by interest - rate cut expectations and risk - aversion demand. It is recommended for range trading [18][20] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The cost is under pressure, supply is high, and demand is weak. The export growth sustainability is questionable. It is expected to be slightly bearish in oscillation [22] - Caustic Soda: Affected by alumina production and inventory, the valuation is under pressure. It is expected to be slightly bearish in oscillation [24] - Styrene: The cost and supply - demand fundamentals are weak. It is expected to be slightly bearish in oscillation [25][26] - Rubber: The market lacks a clear driving force. The inventory and production capacity utilization are changing. It is expected to trade in a range [26] - Urea: The supply is increasing, and the demand is spreading. The price is expected to oscillate, and the rebound sustainability needs attention [27][28] - Methanol: The supply is recovering, and the demand is weak. The inventory is increasing. It is expected to trade in a range [28] - Polyolefins: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand improvement is limited. It is expected to be bearish in oscillation [30] - Soda Ash: The supply is in surplus, and the demand is weak. The 01 contract is for a short - selling strategy [32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The global cotton supply - demand situation is changing. The seed - cotton price is high, and trade negotiations are progressing. It is expected to trade in a range [33] - PTA: The oil price is affecting, and the supply - demand is in a state of inventory accumulation. It is in low - level oscillation [34] - Apples: The ground trading is ending, and the出库 is starting. The production and quality are declining. It is expected to be slightly bullish [34] - Jujubes: The acquisition price is changing, and the market sentiment is weak. It is expected to be slightly bearish [36] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: The short - term price is in narrow - range oscillation. The long - term supply is high, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to arbitrage [37][38][39] - Eggs: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is stable. The price increase is limited. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 12 - contract and trade in a range for the 01 - contract [39][40] - Corn: The short - term supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The long - term cost has support. It is in a bottom - building phase [41][42] - Soybean Meal: Affected by US policies and Brazilian planting, it is in range oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the 3000 - yuan support level [43][44] - Oils: Different oils have different supply - demand situations. They are expected to bottom - build and rebound in the short - term and trade in a wide range in the long - term [45][49]