黑色建材日报：下游情绪偏弱，玻碱震荡运行-20251113

Report Core View - The prices of various black building materials are mainly in a state of volatile operation, and different varieties face different supply - demand situations and influencing factors [1][3][5][7] Steel Market Analysis - Yesterday, the main contract of rebar futures closed at 3,038 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,255 yuan/ton. The national building materials trading volume was 91,600 tons. This week, the production and sales of building materials increased month - on - month, inventory decreased month - on - month, and demand rebounded slightly. However, there is a possibility of weakening demand in the off - season. The output of strip steel decreased due to production restrictions in North China this week, demand remained resilient, and inventory decreased slightly month - on - month. The contradiction of strip steel lies in its high inventory and production, and steel prices are suppressed due to export profit losses, and production cuts are needed to resolve the fundamental contradictions [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Volatile and weak [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Yesterday, the price of iron ore futures rose slightly. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port increased slightly. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and quotes mostly followed the market. Steel mills' procurement was mainly for rigid demand. The cumulative trading volume of iron ore at major ports across the country was 988,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.35%. This week, the shipment of iron ore continued to decline, and the supply of iron ore was in a loose state. With steel mills' loss - induced production cuts, the demand for iron ore was under pressure. The current relative valuation of the Platts index of iron ore is relatively high, and the ore price is under downward pressure, but it is difficult to have a trend direction in the short term supported by downstream restocking demand [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Volatile and weak [4] Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Yesterday, the main contracts of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated downward. In terms of coke, there were more coking maintenance operations, and supply decreased due to environmental protection factors in some areas. In terms of coking coal, market sentiment cooled slightly, and the auction non - success rate of coking coal increased. For imported Mongolian coal, the transaction center of Mongolian coal moved down, and the partial transaction price of Mongolian 5 raw coal dropped to about 1,120 - 1,130 yuan/ton. The seasonal off - season characteristics of the terminal demand for steel are obvious, and there is an expectation of a further decline in hot metal production, and terminal demand is suppressed. Coupled with the recovery of Mongolian coal customs clearance volume and relatively high imports, the supply contraction logic is weakened to a certain extent [5] Strategy - Coking coal: Volatile; Coke: Volatile [6] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - In terms of origin, the prices of main producing areas fluctuated. Currently, the procurement of metallurgical, chemical, and large - scale station customers is stable, and the prices of some coal mines are temporarily stable. However, as the wait - and - see sentiment increases, the procurement rhythm of traders slows down, the number of coal - pulling trucks in some coal mines decreases, and the price slightly回调. Currently, the inventory of coal mines is not high, and the port prices are relatively strong, so coal mines are not very willing to cut prices. At ports, the port shipments increased, downstream buyers were waiting and watching, and the trading activity was low. Traders expect the winter supply - demand situation to be tight, and the quotes remain firm, but downstream buyers have limited acceptance of high prices, and the game between buyers and sellers intensifies. In terms of imports, the recent trend of the imported coal market is stable and slightly strong, the price advantage of imported coal is obvious, terminal customers centrally purchase imported coal with cost - performance advantages, and the price of imported coal rises accordingly, maintaining a stable cost - performance advantage [7] Strategy - None [7]