Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views - The "tariff refund" plan is expected to greatly stimulate US consumption and the economy, which is positive for silver. The upward trend of Shanghai silver is further established, and it is recommended to pay attention to the possible divergence between the medium - term trends of silver and gold. Silver is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [1]. - The domestic rubber production area is entering the reduction period, and overseas production areas are affected by rain. The raw material prices are firm, but the demand side lacks substantial benefits. The price difference between natural rubber and synthetic rubber is large, restricting the increase of natural rubber prices. It is expected to fluctuate with a bearish bias [2]. - The cost of ferrosilicon is rising, but the market supply - demand relationship is loose. The price upward drive is insufficient, and the futures price is expected to run at a low level around the cost [4]. - The demand for steel in the off - season is weak, and the supply and demand in the steel market are both weak, but the inventory pressure is not large. The short - term steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly [4]. - The supply and demand of coking coal are both weak, and the decline in hot metal production suppresses real consumption. The futures price is oscillating at a low level, and short - term range operation is recommended [5]. - The demand for terminal pork products is insufficient, and the market supply exceeds demand. The short - term LH2601 contract is under downward pressure and will oscillate at the bottom [5]. - The domestic palm oil market is in an adjustment stage, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Range trading is recommended [6]. - The supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, the oil mill operating rate is slowly rising, and the demand is relatively stable. The short - term 01 contract of soybean meal is expected to oscillate narrowly in the range of 3030 - 3090 [8]. - The capital market is continuously loose, which is positive for short - term bonds. The bond market is expected to oscillate with a slightly bullish bias in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [8]. - The dovish may gradually dominate the Fed, and the US dollar index is lackluster. Gold is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [9]. - OPEC estimates that the global oil market has shifted from a deficit to a surplus, and there are concerns about oversupply in the crude oil market. It is expected to fluctuate with a bearish bias [10]. - The polyester inventory is decreasing, the PTA rigid demand is okay, and the inventory accumulation pressure in the first half of November is relieved. PTA is expected to fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see [11]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Silver - The "tariff refund" plan proposed by Trump may cost up to $600 billion, far exceeding the expected tariff revenue of about $30 billion. This plan is expected to boost US consumption and the economy, which is positive for silver [1]. Rubber - In the first 10 months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports increased by 13.8% year - on - year, and in October, exports increased by 6.6% year - on - year but decreased by 4.1% month - on - month. Malaysia's natural rubber production in Q3 2025 decreased by 11.3% year - on - year. The domestic production area is entering the reduction period, and overseas production areas are affected by rain, but the demand side lacks substantial benefits [2]. Ferrosilicon - The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 35.48%, a decrease of 0.46% from last week; the daily average output is 16,115 tons, a decrease of 2.62% from last week. The cost is rising, but the oversupply situation makes it difficult to increase the price [4]. Rebar - On November 12, the domestic steel market showed mixed trends. The average price of 20mm grade - 3 seismic rebar in 31 major cities was 3,232 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The demand in the off - season is weak, and the supply and demand are both weak, but the inventory pressure is not large [4]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants is 37.4%, a decrease of 0.18% from the previous period; the daily output of clean coal is 274,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period; the clean coal inventory is 3.008 million tons, an increase of 59,000 tons from the previous period. The supply recovery is slow, and the real demand is declining [5]. Live Pigs - On November 12, the average price of pork in national agricultural product wholesale markets was 17.89 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.2% from the previous day. The demand for terminal products is insufficient, and the market supply exceeds demand [5]. Palm Oil - Malaysia's 2025 crude palm oil production is expected to increase by 3.4% year - on - year to a record 20 million tons. The export volume from November 1 - 10 decreased by 49.53% compared with the same period last month [6]. Soybean Meal - The total transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was 244,900 tons, a decrease of 69,200 tons from the previous trading day. The operating rate of oil mills increased by 2.31% to 59.12%. The supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, and the demand is relatively stable [8]. Short - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - term varieties all declined. Overnight varieties dropped 9.3BP to 1.415%, 7 - day varieties dropped 2.7BP to 1.474%, 14 - day varieties dropped 1.8BP to 1.5%, and 1 - month varieties dropped 0.2BP to 1.523%. The capital market is loose, which is positive for short - term bonds [8]. Gold - A dovish candidate may be nominated to replace Powell as the Fed chairman and hopes for a larger - scale interest rate cut in December. The US dollar index is lackluster, which is positive for gold [9]. Crude Oil - OPEC maintains its forecast for global oil demand in 2025 and 2026. The OECD commercial inventory increased by 60 million barrels in September 2025. OPEC+ crude oil production decreased in October. OPEC estimates that the global oil market has shifted from a deficit to a surplus [10]. PTA - The overall inventory of the polyester market is concentrated between 14 - 24 days. The polyester load operation rebounds unexpectedly, and the PTA rigid demand is okay. The PTA operating rate decreases, and the inventory accumulation pressure in the first half of November is relieved [11].
宁证期货今日早评-20251113
Ning Zheng Qi Huo·2025-11-13 02:01