铜矿供需持续偏紧或支撑铜价：沪铜日评20251113-20251113

Report Title - The report is titled "Shanghai Copper Daily Report 20251113: Tight Supply and Demand of Copper Mines May Support Copper Prices" [1] Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the copper industry is cautiously bullish [2] Core View - On the supply side, there are disturbances in the production of multiple copper mines at home and abroad, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index, indicating a tight supply - demand outlook for domestic copper concentrates. Although the supply of scrap copper has increased and domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates have risen, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November has decreased month - on - month. On the demand side, the capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, recycled copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper tubes, and brass rods have increased compared to last week. In terms of inventory, China's electrolytic copper social inventory has decreased, while LME and COMEX copper inventories have increased. With the US federal government about to end its shutdown and production disturbances in overseas copper mines, the price of Shanghai copper may show a certain upward trend. It is recommended to hold long positions in Shanghai copper cautiously, paying attention to support and resistance levels [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shanghai Copper Futures - Price: The closing price of the active Shanghai copper futures contract on November 12, 2025, was 86,840, up 210 from the previous day [2] - Trading Volume: The trading volume was 76,287 lots on November 12, 2025, an increase of 1,648 lots from the previous day [2] - Open Interest: The open interest was 200,769 lots on November 12, 2025, a decrease of 1,602 lots from the previous day [2] - Inventory: The inventory was 44,088 tons on November 12, 2025, an increase of 1,124 tons from the previous day [2] - Basis and Premium: The Shanghai copper basis and various premiums showed different degrees of change. For example, the SMM 1 electrolytic copper - average price difference was - 45 on November 12, 2025, down 180 from the previous day [2] London Copper - Price: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on November 12, 2025, was 10,897, up 57 from the previous day [2] - Inventory: The total registered and cancelled warehouse receipt inventory on November 11, 2025, was 136,250 tons [2] - Contract Spread: The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 0 on November 12, 2025, up 21.28 from the previous day [2] COMEX Copper - Inventory: The total COMEX copper inventory on November 12, 2025, was 378,303 tons, an increase of 5,999 tons from the previous relevant data [2] - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to the support and resistance levels. For Shanghai copper, focus on the 82,000 - 84,000 support and 88,000 - 90,000 resistance; for London copper, focus on the 10,300 - 10,500 support and 11,000 - 11,200 resistance; for US copper, focus on the 4.5 - 4.8 support and 5.2 - 5.5 resistance [2]