能源化行业：OPEC?报承认原油过剩，能化延续震荡整理

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry will continue to consolidate in a volatile manner. The OPEC monthly report confirmed an oversupply of 500,000 barrels per day in the global crude oil market in Q3 2025, which is different from the previous shortage forecast. The strengthening of refined oil products is reflected in both crack spreads and calendar spreads, while the calendar spreads of crude oil are gradually weakening. The rise in crude oil prices has not driven the chemical sector, and various chemical products are showing different trends [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - Crude Oil: The expectation of oversupply is intensifying, and geopolitical disturbances still exist. The API data shows that the US crude oil inventory continued to build up last week, and the EIA short - term energy outlook report raised the forecast of US crude oil production. The OPEC monthly report adjusted its estimate of the global oil market from a deficit to a surplus. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Asphalt: The spot price in Shandong has stabilized, and the futures price of asphalt is oscillating. The supply tension has been relieved, and the over - valuation premium is starting to decline. The absolute price of asphalt is over - estimated, and the calendar spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [10]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The futures price of fuel oil is oscillating. Pay attention to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Although the Israel - Palestine conflict has ended, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, and the demand for fuel oil is still weak [11]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Due to the strength of refined oil products, low - sulfur fuel oil may run strongly. It is affected by the decline in Russian refined oil exports, but also faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand and green energy substitution [13]. - PX: Market sentiment tends to be rational. Under the situation of strong supply and demand, the processing fee is strongly supported. It is expected that the short - term price will oscillate slightly upwards [14]. - PTA: Market sentiment is flat, and the basis is under pressure. The short - term increase slows down, and it turns to range - bound consolidation [14]. - Pure Benzene: The port resumes inventory accumulation, and pure benzene runs weakly. The current upward driving force is insufficient, but the valuation is at a low level [16]. - Styrene: There are still concerns about inventory overflow, and styrene oscillates weakly. The pressure in November is mainly on the cost side of pure benzene [18]. - Ethylene Glycol: The spot circulation is loose, and there are still production profits. The hope of reversing the downward trend in the short - term market is slim. The price will maintain a low - level range - bound operation [19]. - Short - Fiber: The market follows the "buy - on - dips" principle, and pay attention to the conversion between peak and off - peak seasons. The short - fiber price follows the upstream to oscillate, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed [22]. - Bottle Chip: The market performance is flat, and it passively follows the cost. The processing fee is expected to be sorted out within the range in the short - term [24]. - Methanol: The high - inventory reality suppresses, and overseas disturbances are not significant. Methanol oscillates and consolidates. Wait for overseas disturbance information in the short - term [26]. - Urea: There is still an incremental production capacity, and the futures price is under pressure in the short - term. It is in a state of high - inventory suppression and coal - cost support, and pay attention to the implementation of export quotas and coal - price trends [26]. - Plastic: The maintenance rate declines, and plastic oscillates weakly. The fundamental support is limited, and the production pressure is large due to the increase in production capacity [28]. - PP: The maintenance support is still limited, and PP oscillates weakly. The inventory in the middle reaches is at a high level in the same period in recent years, and pay attention to the change and sustainability of maintenance [29]. - PL: The inventory needs time to be digested, and PL oscillates weakly. The downstream replenishment enthusiasm weakens, and the trading range changes little [30]. - PVC: Weak reality suppresses, and PVC oscillates weakly. The macro - level disturbance fades, and the fundamentals are under pressure [31]. - Caustic Soda: It has a low valuation and weak expectations, and caustic soda oscillates. The supply - demand expectation is poor, but the falling price of liquid chlorine pushes up the cost [32]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - Inter - period Spreads: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.27 with a change of - 0.02, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread is - 28 with a change of - 8 [34]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: Various varieties show different basis values, changes, and warehouse receipt quantities. For example, the basis of asphalt is - 43 with a change of 7, and the number of warehouse receipts is 7690 [35]. - Inter - variety Spreads: Different inter - variety spreads also have different values and changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is 136 with a change of - 47 [37]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report only lists the names of various varieties such as methanol, urea, etc., but does not provide specific monitoring data. 3.3 Index Information - Comprehensive Index: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on November 12, 2025, shows that the commodity index is 2258.82 (+0.40%), the commodity 20 index is 2563.42 (+0.48%), the industrial products index is 2223.46 (+0.58%), and the PPI commodity index is 1344.72 (+0.44%) [280]. - Sector Index: The energy index on November 12, 2025, has a current value of 1169.87, with a daily increase of 1.34%, a 5 - day increase of 0.97%, a 1 - month increase of 4.26%, and a year - to - date decrease of 4.73% [281].