碳酸锂日评：宽幅震荡-20251113

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2) Core View On November 12, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated widely, with an increase in trading volume and open interest. The spot market trading was sluggish, and the basis discount narrowed. The prices of cost - related lithium concentrate and lithium mica increased. Last week, lithium carbonate production rose, as did the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials. In November, the estimated production of lithium carbonate increased while the scheduled production decreased. The production of power batteries increased last week. Terminal demand showed a slowdown in the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of new energy vehicle production and sales in October, general 3C shipments, and an increase in the estimated production of energy - storage batteries in November. In terms of inventory, registered warehouse receipts increased, and there was destocking in smelters, downstream, and other sectors. Currently, both supply and demand are strong, with repeated news of the resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi. High prices have intensified downstream wait - and - see sentiment, and the power demand is expected to weaken. The game between bulls and bears has intensified, and it is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate widely [1]. 3) Summary by Related Content Futures Market - On November 12, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated widely, with a trading volume of 1,145,329 lots (+242,839) and an open interest of 528,966 lots (+2,473) [1]. - The price differences between different contracts showed various changes, such as the spread between the near - month and the first - consecutive contract being - 1,720 yuan/ton, and the basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) being - 3,280 yuan/ton, with a change of +1,360 yuan/ton [1]. Spot Market - The spot market trading was sluggish, and the basis discount narrowed. The prices of lithium concentrate and lithium mica increased. The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 83,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,000 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand - Supply side: Last week, lithium carbonate production increased, and the production of lithium carbonate from various raw materials all rose. In November, the estimated production of lithium carbonate increased while the scheduled production decreased [1]. - Demand side: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In October, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down, 3C shipments were general, and the estimated production of energy - storage batteries in November increased [1]. Inventory - Registered warehouse receipts were 28,287 tons (+188 tons), and there was destocking in smelters, downstream, and other sectors. The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 127,358 tons, a decrease of 3,405 tons compared to the previous week [1]. Industry News - Mineral Resources will sell 30% of its lithium business stake to POSCO for $765 million, aiming to reduce debt and repair the balance sheet. POSCO will enter the Australian lithium mining field for the first time [1]. - Ningde Times' Yichun Guanshixia lithium mine has new progress in resuming production. It may need to pay an additional 177 million yuan in mining rights transfer income [1]. - Core Lithium optimized the mining plan for the Grants deposit of the Finniss project, reducing pre - production capital expenditure by A$35 - 45 million, advancing the production time of the first batch of ore, increasing the ore reserve by 33% to 1.53 million tons, and increasing the lithium chloride content by 44% [1]. Investment Strategy - Production enterprises can conduct sell - hedging at high prices, and speculators can try short positions lightly after the upward trend encounters resistance [1].