棉花：缺乏上涨驱动，期价小幅回落

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - Cotton futures prices are slightly falling due to a lack of upward - driving factors. The cotton market shows different trends in different segments, with domestic cotton spot having good trading but the cotton - textile market being sluggish, and ICE cotton futures continuing to decline [1][2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: CF2601 closed at 13,515 yuan/ton yesterday with a - 0.33% daily increase, and its overnight closing price was 13475 yuan/ton with a - 0.30% to - 0.20% overnight increase. CY2601 closed at 19,790 yuan/ton yesterday with a - 0.33% daily increase, and its overnight closing price was 19750 yuan/ton. ICE cotton futures closed at 64.82 cents/pound yesterday with a - 0.93% daily increase. The trading volume of CF2601 was 381,126 lots, an increase of 181,748 compared to the previous day, and its position was 941,724 lots, a decrease of 5,344. The trading volume of CY2601 was 14,275 lots, a decrease of 1,999, and its position was 24,392 lots, an increase of 1,045 [1] - Warehouse Receipt Data: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 3,884, an increase of 265, and the effective forecast was 1,135, a decrease of 19. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 31, an increase of 12, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 7 [1] - Spot Price Data: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,484 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan compared to the previous day with a - 0.34% change. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,418 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan with a - 0.28% change. The price in Shandong was 14,878 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan with a 0.09% change. The price in Hebei was 14,873 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan with a 0.02% change. The 3128B index was 14,851 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan with a 0.06% change. The international cotton index: M: CNCottonM was 73.04 cents/pound, a decrease of 1 cent with a - 0.94% change. The price of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 20,490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan with a - 0.15% change. The arrival price of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 21,203 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan with a - 0.03% change [1] - Spread Data: The CF1 - 5 spread was - 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 compared to the previous day. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: Cotton spot trading is good, and the overall basis is stable. The mainstream lower sales basis of 2025/26 Southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurities within 3 is CF01 + 900 - 1050, and for 2025/26 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29B with impurities within 3.5, it is mostly CF01 + 900 and above [2] - Domestic Cotton - Textile Enterprises: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is still sluggish, with new orders being weak. Due to the weakening of seasonal rigid demand, traders and downstream weavers are cautious in purchasing. The price of pure - cotton yarn is generally stable [2] - US Cotton: ICE cotton futures continued to fall yesterday, approaching the October low again, affected by the decline in crude oil and the market's cautious attitude towards the US Department of Agriculture's monthly supply - demand report [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5]