烧碱：趋势偏弱

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the caustic soda industry is "Weak" [3] Core View of the Report - The high production and high inventory pattern of caustic soda continues, and the market keeps shorting the chlor-alkali profit. The influence of alumina's production startup and reduction expectations on caustic soda can basically offset each other. During winter, the supply-demand gap caused by stockpiling is limited under high operation. Non-aluminum downstream support is limited and exports are under pressure, increasing domestic supply pressure. The valuation of caustic soda is always suppressed by the alumina production reduction expectation. Although the price reduction of liquid chlorine can raise the cost of caustic soda, the rebound space is limited without production cuts by manufacturers. In the long run, the alumina production reduction will lead to negative feedback in the industrial chain [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On November 13, 2025, the futures price of the 01 contract was 2344, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 780, the spot 32% caustic soda in Shandong converted to the futures price was 2438, and the basis was 94 [1] Spot News - On November 12, the caustic soda market price in Shandong was partially stable, and some markets saw a slight increase after inventory decline. The supply in Shandong has both increases and decreases, and the short-term impact is unclear. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [2] Market Condition Analysis - The high production and high inventory pattern of caustic soda continues, and the market keeps shorting the chlor-alkali profit. From the demand side, the influence of alumina's production startup and reduction expectations on caustic soda can basically offset each other. During winter, the supply-demand gap caused by stockpiling is limited under high operation. Non-aluminum downstream support is limited and exports are under pressure, increasing domestic supply pressure. The valuation of caustic soda is always suppressed by the alumina production reduction expectation. Although the price reduction of liquid chlorine can raise the cost of caustic soda, it can only lead to a low-level valuation repair. Without production cuts by manufacturers, the rebound space of caustic soda is always limited. In the long run, the alumina production reduction will lead to negative feedback in the industrial chain [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is -1, indicating a "Weak" trend [3]