沥青：现货不振，偏弱震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Core View The asphalt market is experiencing weak spot prices and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing prices of BU2512 and BU2601 on the previous trading day were 3,063 yuan/ton, with daily increases of 0.39% and 0.43% respectively. During the night session, the closing prices were 3,041 yuan/ton and 3,036 yuan/ton, with decreases of 0.72% and 0.88% respectively. The trading volume of BU2512 was 5,643 lots, a decrease of 4,470 lots, and the open interest was 20,326 lots, a decrease of 34 lots. The trading volume of BU2601 was 183,695 lots, a decrease of 68,513 lots, and the open interest was 198,272 lots, an increase of 4,444 lots. The total market asphalt warehouse receipts were 7,690 lots, with no change [1]. - Spread Data: The basis (Shandong - 12) was -43 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton from the previous day. The 12 - 01 inter - period spread was 0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton. The Shandong - South China spread was -280 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton. The East China - South China spread was 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton [1]. - Spot Market Data: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,020 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,340 yuan/ton, with no change. The refinery operating rate was 33.50%, a decrease of 0.36% from the previous period. The refinery inventory rate was 28.45%, an increase of 0.60% from the previous period [1]. Trend Intensity The asphalt trend intensity is -1, indicating a weak bearish outlook [8]. Market Information - Production: From November 4th to November 10th, 2025, the weekly domestic asphalt production was 525,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons (0.8%) from the previous week and a decrease of 1,000 tons (0.2%) year - on - year. The cumulative production from January to November was 27.156 million tons, an increase of 3.107 million tons (12.9%) year - on - year [14]. - Inventory: As of November 10th, 2025, the inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample refineries was 688,000 tons, an increase of 0.4% from November 6th. The refinery inventory in Shandong increased significantly due to weak terminal demand and the preference of traders to clear social inventories. The inventory of 104 domestic asphalt social warehouses was 1.167 million tons, a decrease of 3.5% from November 6th. The social inventory in Shandong decreased significantly due to construction rush demand and the approach of the off - season [14].