甲醇日报：港口库存再度上升-20251113

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The port is still weak, with port inventory rising to a high level again. The inventory in Jiangsu is rebounding rapidly, and the short - term arrival pressure is still high. It remains to be seen whether the expected reduction in shipments will be realized. Iran will enter the winter maintenance period from late November to December, and the actual implementation progress needs attention [2] - After mainstream CTO manufacturers made low - price purchases, the inventory of inland factories decreased, and the pending orders increased. However, Shandong MTO is in the maintenance period, and the Shandong price performance should be monitored. The window for port - to - inland return is on the verge of opening [3] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - period spreads, including methanol Taicang basis and the main contract, basis of methanol in different regions relative to the main futures, and spreads between different methanol futures contracts [7][8][21] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the profit of East China MTO (PP&EG type), and import price differences such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [25][33] III. Methanol Production & Inventory - The total port inventory of methanol is 1,543,600 tons (+56,500 tons), with Jiangsu port inventory at 836,600 tons (+45,100 tons), Zhejiang port inventory at 219,800 tons (+19,800 tons), and Guangdong port inventory at 290,000 tons (-7,000 tons). The MTO/P operating rate (including integrated) is 89.81% (-0.38%). The inland factory sample inventory and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated) are also presented [2][35] IV. Regional Price Differences - The report provides various regional price differences, such as the difference between northern Shandong and northwest (-280), the difference between Taicang and Inner Mongolia (-550), and the difference between Guangdong and East China (-180) [2][38] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production profits of traditional downstream products, including the production profit of Shandong formaldehyde, the production profit of Jiangsu acetic acid, the production profit of Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and the production profit of Henan dimethyl ether [54][57] Strategy - Unilateral: None [4] - Inter - period: Short MA2601 and long MA2605, long MA2605 and short MA2609, butterfly spread [4] - Cross - variety: None [4]