化工日报：EG高供应，现货基差下行-20251113

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The EG market has high supply, with the domestic ethylene glycol load operating at a high level and overseas device changes being limited. The arrival plan around mid - November is still moderately high, and port inventories are expected to gradually rise. Although the polyester downstream has moderately improved with the cooling, the increase in polyester load is limited [1]. - In terms of strategies, for the single - side operation, it is advisable to cautiously short - sell on rallies for hedging. For the inter - period operation, an inverse spread between EG2601 and EG2605 is recommended. There is no cross - variety strategy [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3891 yuan/ton (up 16 yuan/ton, +0.41% from the previous trading day), the EG spot price in the East China market was 3953 yuan/ton (down 26 yuan/ton, - 0.65% from the previous trading day), and the EG East China spot basis was 62 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 61 US dollars/ton (down 4 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - based syngas EG was - 949 yuan/ton (down 38 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. International Spread No relevant content is provided in the given text. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - With the recent cooling, the polyester downstream has moderately improved, but the increase in polyester load is limited [1]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 66.1 tons (up 9.9 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, it was 56.4 tons (up 6.5 tons month - on - month). The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week are 18.1 tons, and at the secondary ports are 4.7 tons, indicating a high planned arrival volume and expected inventory accumulation [1].