烧碱山东累库，江苏去库

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC shows a weak and volatile trend. Supply is abundant due to new production capacity, while demand is weak with low procurement sentiment. Export orders are declining, and inventory is high, putting pressure on prices. However, future policies need to be monitored [3]. - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. Supply is increasing as maintenance decreases, and demand varies by region and industry. There are inventory differences between Shandong and Jiangsu, and future price support depends on new alumina plant procurement [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures Price and Basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4581 yuan/ton (+9), with an East China basis of -51 yuan/ton (-9) and a South China basis of -11 yuan/ton (-29) [1]. - Spot Price: East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4530 yuan/ton (+0), and South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4570 yuan/ton (-20) [1]. - Upstream Production Profit: The price of semi - coke is 800 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of calcium carbide is 2830 yuan/ton (+0). The calcium carbide profit is - 100 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit is - 769 yuan/ton (-6), the ethylene - based PVC production gross profit is - 465 yuan/ton (+79), and the PVC export profit is 9.3 dollars/ton (+1.0) [1]. - Inventory and Operating Rate: PVC factory inventory is 33.5 tons (-0.3), social inventory is 54.6 tons (+0.1). The calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate is 80.17% (+3.70%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate is 77.23% (-1.27%), and the overall PVC operating rate is 79.28% (+2.19%) [1]. - Downstream Orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 74.2 tons (-3.2) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures Price and Basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2344 yuan/ton (-13), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 125 yuan/ton (+13) [1]. - Spot Price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 790 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1250 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Upstream Production Profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1478 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 854.5 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 17.47 yuan/ton (-10.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 721.53 yuan/ton (-90.30) [2]. - Inventory and Operating Rate: Liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 41.48 tons (-2.78), flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.90 tons (+0.17), and the caustic soda operating rate is 84.80% (+0.50%) [2]. - Downstream Operating Rate: The alumina operating rate is 85.25% (-0.61%), the printing and dyeing operating rate in East China is 68.06% (+0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate is 89.60% (-0.06%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply: Two new units were under maintenance this week, but new production capacity is gradually being put into production, resulting in an abundant supply [3]. - Demand: Downstream operating rates have decreased, and low - price procurement has improved, but overall procurement sentiment is average [3]. - Export: Exports are based on price - for - volume, and export orders are declining. India's anti - dumping tax is expected to be implemented in November, and an anti - dumping investigation on PVC wallpapers has been launched [3]. - Inventory: Social inventory has slightly increased, and the absolute inventory value is high. PVC futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, suppressing futures prices [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply: Maintenance of units has decreased, and the operating rate has increased. Attention should be paid to the 100,000 - ton production capacity of Tangshan Sanyou [3]. - Demand: Alumina orders in Shandong are stable, but the alumina operating rate in Hebei has slightly decreased. Non - aluminum demand is mainly for rigid procurement and will weaken in the off - season [3]. - Inventory: There are differences in inventory between Shandong and Jiangsu. Shandong has an overall inventory increase, while Jiangsu has a decrease [3]. - Price: The procurement price of new alumina plants may support prices, and cost support exists due to the increase in Shandong's electricity price in November and the relatively weak liquid chlorine price [3]. Strategy PVC - Single - side: Range - bound and weak, with opportunities for positive cash - and - carry arbitrage [4]. - Inter - period: Wait - and - see [4]. - Inter - variety: No strategy [4]. Caustic Soda - Single - side: Range - bound [5]. - Inter - period: Positive arbitrage for SH12 - 01 at low prices [5]. - Inter - variety: No strategy [5].