化工日报：天然橡胶社会库存环比继续回升-20251113

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for RU and NR is neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [10] Core Viewpoints - The cost of natural rubber is strongly supported, but with the increase in supply later, the supply - demand drive is weak. The supply pressure of RU may be less than that of NR in the later period, which is beneficial for the spread between RU and NR to continue to widen. The supply of BR is expected to be difficult to increase significantly in the short term, and it mainly follows the price of upstream butadiene. The weak situation of butadiene may continue, but the loss of production profit may suppress later output [10] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,220 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton; the NR main contract was 12,180 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,430 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,750 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,700 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The price of Thai No. 20 standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,850 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian No. 20 standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,715 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 10,300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,400 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - Heavy - truck Market: In October 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 93,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared with September and a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to October, the cumulative sales volume exceeded 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22%, and it is expected to exceed 1 million vehicles after November [2] - Global Natural Rubber: ANRPC predicted that in September 2025, the global natural rubber production would increase by 5% to 1.433 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the consumption would decrease by 3.3% to 1.274 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2%. In the first three quarters, the cumulative production was expected to increase by 2.3% to 10.374 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 11.422 million tons [2] - China's Rubber Imports: In October 2025, China imported a total of 667,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 1.2% increase compared with the same period in 2024 [2] - Thailand's Rubber Exports: In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Exports to China totaled 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6% [3] - Passenger - car Market: In October 2025, the retail sales volume of the national passenger - car market was 2.242 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% and a month - on - month slight decrease of 0.1%. From January to October, the cumulative retail sales were 19.25 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [3] - EU Passenger - car Market: In September 2025, the sales volume of the EU passenger - car market increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales volume in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Spreads: On November 12, 2025, the RU basis was - 470 yuan/ton (+25), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 520 yuan/ton (+25), the NR basis was 924.00 yuan/ton (+45.00), etc. [4] - Raw Materials: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 60.20 Thai baht/kg (+0.00), the price of Thai glue was 56.30 Thai baht/kg (+0.00), the price of Thai cup lump was 52.10 Thai baht/kg (+0.20), and the spread between Thai glue and cup lump was 4.20 Thai baht/kg (+0.10) [5] - 开工率: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.37% (+0.03%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.89% (+0.77%) [6] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 449,455 tons (+1,787), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 1,056,357 tons (+345), the RU futures inventory was 118,970 tons (-1,930), and the NR futures inventory was 48,586 tons (+3,931) [6] Cis - Polybutadiene Rubber - Spot and Spreads: On November 12, 2025, the BR basis was - 80 yuan/ton (-40), the ex - factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 6,900 yuan/ton (+0), etc. [7] - 开工率: The operating rate of high - cis cis - polybutadiene rubber was 66.02% (-0.88%) [8] - Inventory: The inventory of cis - polybutadiene rubber traders was 3,520 tons (-160), and the inventory of cis - polybutadiene rubber enterprises was 25,770 tons (-1,430) [9]