FICC日报：市场避险情绪升温，关注美国10月CPI数据-20251113

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Amid rising market risk - aversion, focus on the US October CPI data. In the commodity market, during the current inflation - expectation game phase, pay attention to non - ferrous metals and precious metals with high certainty. Consider buying precious metals and non - ferrous metals on dips [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In the domestic market, positive news has emerged, but the economic foundation needs further consolidation. The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal was released on October 28, and the average GDP growth rate during the 15th Five - Year Plan period is expected to be around 5%. On October 30, the China - US economic and trade teams reached a three - aspect consensus, and China officially postponed tariffs on November 5. In October, the national manufacturing PMI was 49, a 0.8 decline from the previous month. China's October exports (in US dollars) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, compared with an 8.3% increase in the previous value. China's October CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year, and the core CPI reached the highest level since March 2024. The PPI increased month - on - month for the first time this year. On November 12, the A - share market adjusted with a slight decline in the three major indices, the bond market rose across the board, most commodities fell, and precious metals rose [2]. - In the US, the liquidity risk has temporarily eased. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected and announced the end of balance - sheet reduction on December 1. On November 10, the US Senate voted to pass the "Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act". The US October ISM manufacturing index dropped to 48.7%, shrinking for eight consecutive months. The ADP private - sector employment in October decreased by 45,000, the largest decline in two and a half years. There are uncertainties regarding the Fed chair candidate and future tariff policies [3]. Commodity Analysis - In the black sector, it is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and focus on the "anti - involution" situation. The long - term supply limitation in the non - ferrous sector has not been alleviated, and it has been boosted by the global easing expectation recently. The medium - term supply of the energy sector is considered to be relatively loose as OPEC + announced an additional production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in November. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of methanol, caustic soda, urea and other varieties is worth attention. In the agricultural products sector, with the China - US peace talks, pay attention to China's procurement plan for US goods and next year's weather forecast. For precious metals, after the short - term sharp adjustment risk is cleared, consider buying on dips [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, consider buying precious metals and non - ferrous metals on dips [5]. A - Share Market - The A - share market recovered after hitting the bottom, with the three major indices slightly declining. More stocks fell than rose, and over 3500 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing stock markets closed down. The trading volume was 1.96 trillion yuan. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.36%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.39% [6]. US Tariff and Economic News - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that there will be major tariff news in the next few days, and tariff dividends are under discussion. Trump mentioned a $2000 tax refund for families with an annual income of less than $100,000. Bessent also said that the economic situation was good before the government shutdown, and he expects real income to rebound in the first and second quarters of next year [3][6].