聚丙烯日报：需求改善有限，盘面上行驱动不足-20251113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; short - term may stop falling, but the upward driving force is limited, and it may mainly fluctuate in the bottom range [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Local PDH device maintenance boost and downstream device restart bring demand increment, promoting the improvement of the propylene market trading. The Shandong spot price rebounds and then stabilizes temporarily, and the futures price stops falling and consolidates. The supply is in a loose pattern with high inventory pressure, the demand support may increase, and the cost support is limited [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Propylene: The closing price of the main contract is 5,896 yuan/ton (+27), the East China spot price is 5,850 yuan/ton (-25), the North China spot price is 5,765 yuan/ton (+0), the East China basis is - 46 yuan/ton (-52), the North China basis is - 122 yuan/ton (-20), the operating rate is 75% (+0%), the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR is 138 US dollars/ton (+6), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 63 US dollars/ton (+0), the import profit is - 213 yuan/ton (+27), and the factory inventory is 49,820 tons (+4,770) [1] - Propylene downstream: PP powder operating rate is 43% (-0.34%), production profit is - 15 yuan/ton (+0); propylene oxide operating rate is 74% (+5%), production profit is 268 yuan/ton (-57); n - butanol operating rate is 86% (+2%), production profit is - 96 yuan/ton (-10); octanol operating rate is 71% (-18%), production profit is - 173 yuan/ton (+0); acrylic acid operating rate is 72% (+5%), production profit is 597 yuan/ton (+18); acrylonitrile operating rate is 78% (-1%), production profit is - 144 yuan/ton (+14); phenol - acetone operating rate is 76% (-3%), production profit is - 390 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - Supply: Binhuahua's 600,000 - ton PDH and Xintai Petrochemical's 300,000 - ton PDH devices have successively shut down. There is a restart expectation for the 600,000 - ton PDH devices of Ningbo Jinfa Phase I and Donghua Zhangjiagang in the East China region. There is a phased reduction in supply, but the supply is still in a loose pattern with high factory inventory pressure [2] - Demand: Downstream bargain - hunting purchases drive the improvement of market trading. The operating rates of PO and acrylic acid have increased significantly, while the octanol operating rate has decreased significantly due to centralized shutdowns. In the later stage, the overall profit of the downstream may improve marginally with the loosening of propylene prices. The acrylonitrile device of Kelu'er will restart, and there is an operating expectation for the PP of Jingbo Petrochemical and the phenol - acetone of Fuyu Petrochemical, so the demand support for propylene may increase [2] - Cost: International oil prices have risen slightly but still face over - supply pressure, and the external propane price has been continuously weak, so the cost support for propylene is limited [2] 3.3 Propylene Basis Structure - It includes figures such as the closing price of the main propylene contract, the East China basis, the North China basis, and the 01 - 05 contract of propylene [6][11] 3.4 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - It involves figures including the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, the propylene capacity utilization rate, the PDH production gross profit of propylene, the PDH capacity utilization rate of propylene, the MTO production gross profit of propylene, the methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, the propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and the crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [16][18][19] 3.5 Propylene Import and Export Profit - It contains figures such as the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, the difference between Japan's CFR and China's CFR, the difference between Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and the propylene import profit [31][35] 3.6 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - It includes figures of production profit and operating rate for PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [38][39][46] 3.7 Propylene Inventory - It involves figures of propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [68]