油脂日报：加拿大生柴政策影响，菜油震荡走强-20251113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is neutral [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The Canadian government will launch a new CAD 370 million production incentive plan to support Canadian rapeseed producers, which provides some support for rapeseed prices and drives the oils to fluctuate strongly [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was CNY 8,744.00 per ton, a decrease of CNY 26 or -0.30% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was CNY 8,288.00 per ton, an increase of CNY 50.00 or +0.61%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was CNY 9,840.00 per ton, an increase of CNY 65.00 or +0.66% [1] - Spot: The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was CNY 8,680.00 per ton, a decrease of CNY 60.00 or -0.69%, with a spot basis of P01+-64.00, a decrease of CNY 34.00; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was CNY 8,450.00 per ton, an increase of CNY 20.00 per ton or +0.24%, with a spot basis of Y01+162.00, a decrease of CNY 30.00; the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was CNY 10,190.00 per ton, an increase of CNY 60.00 or +0.59%, with a spot basis of OI01+350.00, a decrease of CNY 5.00 [1] 3.2 Market Information - Ukraine: The estimated rapeseed production for the 2026/27 season is 3.4 million tons, with an estimated range of 3.2 - 3.6 million tons, the same as the previous estimate. Excluding Crimea and occupied states, the estimated production is 3.3 million tons [2] - Australia: The estimated rapeseed production for the 2025/26 season is 6.3 million tons (estimated range of 5.9 - 6.0 million tons), the same as the previous estimate. Despite the recent cool weather, the estimate remains unchanged [2] - Global Soybean Export Prices: On November 11th, the FOB export price of Argentine soybeans increased by USD 3 to USD 434 per ton; the FOB export price of Brazilian soybeans in Paranagua remained unchanged at USD 452 per ton; the FOB export price of US soybeans in the Gulf of Mexico decreased by USD 3 to USD 451 per ton [2]