白糖：关注印度压榨情况

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2) Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the sugar market, covering domestic and international supply - demand situations, and key data such as prices, production, and consumption, suggesting to pay attention to India's sugarcane crushing situation and China's syrup and pre - mixed powder import policy changes [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Prices and Spreads: The raw sugar price is 14.57 cents/pound with a year - on - year increase of 0.29; the mainstream spot price is 5760 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change; the futures main contract price is 5478 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 2. The 15 spread is 67 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 2; the 59 spread is 6 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 1; the mainstream spot basis is 282 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 2 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - High - frequency Information: Pay attention to China's syrup and pre - mixed powder import policy changes. The 25/26 sugar season's Indian sugar export quota is 1.5 million tons. Brazil's sugar production in the first half of October increased by 1% year - on - year, and its exports in October were 4.2 million tons, a 13% year - on - year increase. China imported 550,000 tons of sugar in September, an increase of 150,000 tons [1] 3.3 Domestic Market - Production, Consumption and Import: CAOC expects the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 sugar season to be 11.7 million tons (previously 11.2 million tons), consumption to be 15.7 million tons (previously 15.9 million tons), and imports to be 5 million tons. As of the end of September in the 24/25 sugar season, national sugar production was 11.16 million tons (+1.2 million tons), cumulative sales were 10.48 million tons (+870,000 tons), and the cumulative sales rate was 93.9% (a 2.6 - percentage - point decrease). Cumulative sugar imports were 4.63 million tons (-120,000 tons). The 25/26 sugar season's expected sugar production in Guangxi is about 6.7 million tons with a declining sugar yield and unchanged sugarcane purchase prices, and about 2.6 million tons in Yunnan [2] 3.4 International Market - Supply and Production: ISO first predicts a 230,000 - ton global sugar supply shortage in the 25/26 sugar season and a 4.88 - million - ton shortage in the 24/25 sugar season. As of October 16 in the 25/26 sugar season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in Brazil's central - southern region decreased by 2.78 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 36.02 million tons (+320,000 tons) and a cumulative MIX of 52.36%, a 3.62 - percentage - point year - on - year increase. ISMA/NFCSF expects India's total sugar production in the 25/26 sugar season to be 34.35 million tons (previously 34.9 million tons), with 3.4 million tons used for ethanol production and a net sugar production of 30.95 million tons. Thailand's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 sugar season was 10.08 million tons (+1.27 million tons) [3] 3.5 Trend Intensity - Sugar Trend Intensity: The sugar trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4]