棕榈油：反弹高度有限，警惕二次下探，豆油：美豆企稳，豆棕继续做扩

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rebound of palm oil is limited, and there is a risk of a second decline [1]. - With the stabilization of US soybeans, the spread between soybean oil and palm oil should continue to widen [1]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - Futures Prices and Trading Volume: Palm oil futures closed at 8,744 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.30% change and 8,664 yuan/ton at night with a -0.91% change; soybean oil futures closed at 8,288 yuan/ton during the day with a 0.61% change; rapeseed oil futures closed at 9,840 yuan/ton during the day with a 0.66% change. The trading volume of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures decreased by 109,457, 37,411, and 52,411 lots respectively [1]. - Spot Prices and Basis: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8,620 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong is 8,610 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan; the spot price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi is 10,210 yuan/ton, with a change of 80 yuan. The basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in relevant regions is - 124 yuan/ton, 322 yuan/ton, and 370 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Price Spreads: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures is 1,096 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures is - 456 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil is - 90 yuan/ton, 224 yuan/ton, and 450 yuan/ton respectively [1]. [Macro and Industry News] - Palm Oil in Malaysia: In 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to exceed 20 million tons for the first time, a 3.4% increase from last year. Production in November may decline by 9% month - on - month to 1.86 million tons, and then by 11% in December to 1.66 million tons. The export volume from November 1 - 10 is expected to be 190,533 tons, a 49.53% decrease from the same period last month [2][3]. - Soybeans in the US: Analysts expect that as of the week ending November 6, US soybean export sales will increase by 4.5 - 16 million tons, soybean meal export sales will increase by 0.5 - 4 million tons, and soybean oil export sales will increase by 0 - 0.25 million tons [3]. - Soybeans in Brazil: The 2025/26 soybean production in Brazil is expected to be 178.4 million tons, with a forecast range of 174.1 - 182.6 million tons, higher than the USDA's previous forecast [4]. - Soybeans in Argentina: As of the week ending November 5, the cumulative sales of 2024/25 soybeans reached 38.8346 million tons, and the cumulative sales of 2025/26 soybeans reached 4.1747 million tons [5]. - Rapeseed in Ukraine: The 2026/27 rapeseed production in Ukraine is expected to be 3.4 million tons, with a forecast range of 3.2 - 3.6 million tons, remaining the same as the previous forecast [5]. - Rapeseed in Australia: The 2025/26 rapeseed production in Australia is expected to be 6.3 million tons, remaining the same as the previous forecast [6]. [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of palm oil is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook; the trend intensity of soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [7].