工业硅&多晶硅日评20251113：上方承压-20251113

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The silicon market has weak supply and demand, with limited improvement on the demand side. The industrial silicon market remains in an oversupply situation, which may suppress the upper limit of the market. For industrial silicon, pay attention to the pressure level of 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton [1]. - For polysilicon, the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is limited, and there is significant pressure for the spot price to rise further, which restricts the upward space of the market. Holders of previous long - positions should protect their profits [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price Information - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 9,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 9,750 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.16% to 9,195 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand - Supply: In October, the southwest产区 entered the high - cost dry season. Some silicon enterprises stopped production by the end of October, and the silicon enterprise operating rate decreased significantly. In Yunnan, only integrated enterprises or those with long - term orders were in production, while in the north, the number of operating furnaces increased steadily. After offsetting, the industrial silicon output in November is expected to fall below 400,000 tons [1]. - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises continued to cut production, organic silicon enterprises were mostly in a state of reduced load or maintenance, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased as needed. The downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels was limited [1]. Investment Strategy - The silicon market has weak supply and demand, and the excess situation may suppress the market. Pay attention to the 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton pressure level. Adopt an interval operation strategy and continuously monitor industry policy changes and silicon enterprise production dynamics [1]. Polysilicon Price Information - The price of N - type dense material remained flat at 51 yuan/kg; the price of N - type re - feeding material fell 0.10% to 52.15 yuan/kg; the prices of N - type mixed material and N - type granular silicon remained flat at 50.50 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 2.95% to 53,460 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand - Supply: Silicon material enterprises continued to cut production, and some silicon material plants may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting, the output in October is expected to increase slightly, and the output in November may decline [1]. - Demand: The polysilicon market transactions were light, with few new transactions. Downstream enterprises were resistant to high - priced resources, and the market was waiting for industry policy guidance [1]. Investment Strategy - The downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is limited, and there is pressure for the spot price to rise. Holders of previous long - positions should protect their profits. Before the supply - side reform policy is implemented, try to go long on dips [1]. Automotive Industry Information - In October 2025, the production and sales of passenger cars were 2.995 million and 2.961 million respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 3.3% and 3.6%, and a year - on - year increase of 10.7% and 7.5%. From January to October 2025, the production and sales of passenger cars were 24.237 million and 24.209 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 13.5% and 12.9% [1]. - In October 2025, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 364,000 and 361,000 respectively, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.3% and 1.9%, and a year - on - year increase of 25.4% and 21%. From January to October 2025, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 3.456 million and 3.479 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 10.9% and 9% [1]. - In October 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 21.1% and 20%. From January to October 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 13.015 million and 12.943 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 33.1% and 32.7% [1]. - In October 2025, automobile exports were 666,000, with a month - on - month increase of 2.1% and a year - on - year increase of 22.9%. From January to October 2025, automobile exports were 5.616 million, with a year - on - year increase of 15.7% [1].