Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [2] - L: Bearish continuation [2] - PP: Bearish continuation [2] - PVC: Bearish continuation [2] - PX: Cautiously bullish [2] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [4] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Methanol: Sideways at the bottom [4] - Urea: Short on rallies [4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [7] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [7] - Glass: Bearish continuation [7] - Soda ash: Bearish rebound [7] Core Views - Crude oil: The oversupply in the off - season remains the core driver, and the upside of oil prices is under pressure. OPEC's latest monthly report predicts an oversupply in 2026, and OPEC+ plans to expand production in December and then pause in early next year. With the start of the consumption off - season and OPEC+ still in the expansion cycle, the pressure of oversupply is rising, and oil prices face significant downward pressure [2]. - LPG: Weak oil prices bring negative impacts to the cost side, and the trend of LPG is weak. Although the supply - demand fundamentals have improved, the cost - side pressure restricts its upward movement [2]. - L: The decline in oil prices and the restart of devices may cause the market to continue to bottom. The supply is loose, and the demand for replenishing inventory is insufficient, with weak cost support [2]. - PP: The sharp decline in coking coal and the weak cost side lead to a weak fundamental situation. There is high pressure to destock, and oil prices still face the risk of further decline in the medium term [2]. - PVC: The market follows coking coal to find the bottom. Although the inventory is high, the low - valuation support limits the further decline space. The market maintains a high premium, and industries are advised to hedge at high prices [2]. - PX: The supply - side devices have increased their loads, and the demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken. The PXN and PX - MX spreads are relatively high, and the crude oil supply - demand pattern is loose. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing up [2]. - PTA: The processing fee is generally low, and the planned device maintenance may relieve the supply - side pressure. The terminal demand has slightly improved, but the rebound height may be limited due to the pressure on crude oil [4]. - Ethylene glycol: Domestic device maintenance has increased, and new device production and the resumption of maintenance devices will increase supply pressure. The demand has improved but is expected to weaken, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November. It has low valuation but lacks upward drivers [4]. - Methanol: High inventory suppresses the rebound of prices. The supply - side pressure is still large, and the demand performance is average. The cost - side support is weak and stable, and the overall fundamentals remain weak [4]. - Urea: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and the demand has slightly improved. The inventory in factories is accumulating, and under the background of "export quota system" and "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices", the market has a ceiling and a floor. It is necessary to be vigilant against the downward risk [4]. - Natural gas: As the temperature drops, the consumption peak season arrives, and the demand has a warming expectation, making gas prices likely to rise and difficult to fall [7]. - Asphalt: The cost - side oil price has回调ed, and the supply - demand fundamentals are loose. The demand has entered the off - season, and the valuation is high. The price center still has room to move down [7]. - Glass: The fundamentals are weak, and the market continues to look for support downward. The supply is unlikely to decline further, and the demand support is insufficient [7]. - Soda ash: The increase in photovoltaic daily melting volume and device maintenance has led to a short - term rebound. However, in the long - term, the supply will remain loose [7]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: Overnight international oil prices dropped significantly. WTI rose 1.43%, Brent rose 1.72%, and SC fell 0.17% [9]. - Basic Logic: The core driver is the oversupply in the off - season, and the short - term driver is OPEC's prediction of oversupply in 2026. OPEC predicts an increase of 600,000 barrels per day in non - OPEC production in 2026, and the global demand increments in 2025 and 2026 are 1.3 million barrels per day and 1.38 million barrels per day respectively. As of the week ending October 31, US crude oil inventory increased by 5.2 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 4.7 million barrels, distillate inventory decreased by 643,000 barrels, and strategic crude oil reserve increased by 5.924 million barrels per day [10][11]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the medium - to - long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production, and oil prices are in a low - price range. Technically, although the short - term trend is strong, the upward pressure is increasing. It is recommended to partially take profits on previous short positions. Pay attention to the range of [460 - 475] for SC [12]. LPG - Market Review: On November 12, the PG main contract closed at 4,349 yuan/ton, up 0.39% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China showed different changes [14]. - Basic Logic: The trend is tied to the cost - side oil price, which is weak. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand has shown some resilience. The inventory in ports and factories has declined, and the import profit has increased, with expected higher future imports [15]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the medium - to - long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the central price is expected to decline. The current ratio of LPG to crude oil is similar to that of the same period last year, with a low basis and high valuation. It is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to the range of [4300 - 4400] for PG [16]. L - Market Review: The L2601 contract closed at 6,788 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan. The basis and other indicators also had corresponding changes [19]. - Basic Logic: The sharp decline in oil prices and the restart of devices may cause the market to continue to bottom. The supply is loose, and the demand for replenishing inventory is insufficient. The oil price still has a downward risk in the medium term, with weak cost support [20]. - Strategy Recommendation: At the absolute low price, partially reduce short positions. In the medium - to - long - term, wait for rebounds to go short. Pay attention to the range of [6700 - 6850] for L [20]. PP - Market Review: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,429 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan. The basis and other indicators changed accordingly [23]. - Basic Logic: The sharp decline in coking coal leads to a weak fundamental situation. The inventory in the upper and middle reaches is at a high level, and the demand support is insufficient. OPEC+ is still in the production - increasing cycle, and oil prices face the risk of further decline in the medium term [24]. - Strategy Recommendation: At the absolute low price, short - term decline stops, and short positions can be reduced. In the medium - to - long - term, wait for rebounds to go short. Pay attention to the range of [6350 - 6500] for PP [24]. PVC - Market Review: The V2601 contract closed at 4,572 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan. The basis and other indicators changed [27]. - Basic Logic: The market follows coking coal to find the bottom. The basis is strengthening, and the warehouse receipts are decreasing from a high level. In the short - term, during the macro - policy window period, the market returns to weak fundamentals. Although the inventory is high, the low - valuation support limits the further decline space [28]. - Strategy Recommendation: The market maintains a high premium. Industries are advised to hedge at high prices. Be cautious when chasing short due to low - valuation support. Pay attention to the range of [4500 - 4650] for V [28]. PX - Basic Logic: The supply - side devices at home and abroad have increased their loads. The PXN and PX - MX spreads are at relatively high levels this year. The demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken. The crude oil supply - demand pattern is loose, and PX follows the cost in the short term [29]. - Strategy Recommendation: Be cautious when chasing up on a single - side trade. For arbitrage, pay attention to expanding the downstream processing margin (i.e., go long on PTA and short on PX). Pay attention to the range of [6680 - 6770] for PX [30]. PTA - Market Review: The prices of TA contracts and spot prices, as well as basis, spreads, and other indicators, showed corresponding changes [31]. - Basic Logic: The processing fee is low, and the planned device maintenance may relieve the supply - side pressure. The terminal demand has slightly improved, but the stability needs to be tracked. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November. Although the fundamentals have improved in the short term, the upward space is limited due to the pressure on crude oil [32]. - Strategy Recommendation: On a single - side trade, look for opportunities to go long on dips. For arbitrage, pay attention to expanding the TA processing margin (i.e., go long on PTA and short on PX). Pay attention to the range of [4600 - 4670] for TA [33]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: The prices of EG contracts and spot prices, as well as basis, spreads, and other indicators, changed [34]. - Basic Logic: Domestic device maintenance has increased, and new device production and the resumption of maintenance devices will increase supply pressure. The demand has improved but is expected to weaken. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November. The valuation is low, but it lacks upward drivers and follows the cost in the short term [35]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is in a low - level oscillation. Look for opportunities to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of [3835 - 3900] for EG [36]. Methanol - Basic Logic: High inventory suppresses the rebound of prices. The supply - side pressure is still large, and the demand performance is average. The cost - side support is weak and stable, and the overall fundamentals remain weak [39]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is in a weak sideways trend. Hold short positions cautiously at low valuations. For arbitrage, pay attention to the MA1 - 3 reverse spread [4]. Urea - Market Review: The prices of urea contracts and spot prices, as well as basis, spreads, and other indicators, changed [42]. - Basic Logic: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and the demand has slightly improved. The inventory in factories is accumulating, and under the background of "export quota system" and "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices", the market has a ceiling and a floor. There are short - term positive factors, but be vigilant against the downward risk [43]. - Strategy Recommendation: Although the export boosts market sentiment, the fundamentals remain weak. Be vigilant against the risk of the market falling back after rising. Pay attention to the range of [1620 - 1650] for UR [44]. Natural Gas - Market Review: On November 12, the NG main contract closed at $4.764 per million British thermal units, up 4.47% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions also changed [47]. - Basic Logic: The decline in global temperature leads to an increase in demand for combustion and heating, and the gas price is likely to rise. The domestic LNG retail profit has increased. The supply - side has some changes, and the demand has shown certain characteristics. The US natural gas inventory has increased [48]. - Strategy Recommendation: As the temperature cools down, the demand for combustion and heating increases, and the price is likely to rise. However, due to sufficient supply and recent sharp increases, the upward momentum has weakened, and the upward space is limited. Pay attention to the range of [4.415 - 4.581] for NG [49]. Asphalt - Market Review: On November 12, the BU main contract closed at 3,063 yuan/ton, up 0.43% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions changed [52]. - Basic Logic: The trend is mainly tied to the cost - side oil price, which is weak. The cost - side support is decreasing. The supply in November is expected to decline, and the demand has also decreased. The inventory of sample enterprises has decreased [53]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions. [51] Glass - Basic Logic: The fundamentals are weak, and the market continues to look for support downward. The supply is unlikely to decline further, and the demand support is insufficient [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the short - term, there is support from cold repairs. In the medium - to - long - term, the demand from the real - estate sector is weak, and the loose pattern is difficult to change. Go short on rebounds [7]. Soda Ash - Basic Logic: The increase in photovoltaic daily melting volume and device maintenance has led to a short - term rebound. However, in the long - term, the supply will remain loose [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: The market maintains a premium structure. Industries are advised to sell and hedge at high prices. Technically, it is bullish in the short term, but go short on rebounds in the medium - to - long - term [7].
中辉能化观点-20251113
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-11-13 02:30