Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the log market, covering supply, demand, inventory, price, and cost aspects, and provides trading strategies [3][4][5] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 3: Core Views - The current log valuation is in a relatively weak range, short - term neutral. Spot prices are stable with some decline in radiata pine. The high New Zealand FOB price may be adjusted, providing limited import cost support. Short - term high inventory and weak demand suppress valuation, but price may stabilize due to factors like traders' price - holding intention, reduced arrivals next week, and restored US log imports. In the long - term, if demand remains weak and North American log supply increases, valuation may stay weakly stable. Further downward price space is limited [4] Group 4: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Supply: New Zealand log arrivals were 571,000 cubic meters this week, up 16% week - on - week, but expected to decrease next week. US log imports resumed on November 10, supplementing species like Douglas - fir. The New Zealand FOB price in November rose to $115 - 119, but high - price transactions were weak [3] - Demand: The average daily outbound volume of 13 ports was 62,800 cubic meters, down 2.48% week - on - week. Demand weakened but was above the annual average. Construction site fund availability was 59.82%, up 0.12 percentage points week - on - week, with better improvement in housing projects [3] - Inventory: Total inventory was 2.88 million cubic meters, up 1.41% week - on - week. Radiata pine accounted for 82% and continued to accumulate. Inventory was concentrated in Shandong and Jiangsu ports, with significant regional differentiation [3] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see, mainly using range - bound operations [5] - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the 1 - 3 reverse spread [5] - Options: Wait and see [5] Group 5: Core Logic Analysis - The current log valuation is short - term neutral. Spot prices are stable with some decline in radiata pine. The high New Zealand FOB price may be adjusted, providing limited cost support. Short - term high inventory and weak demand suppress valuation, but price may stabilize due to traders' price - holding intention, reduced arrivals next week, and restored US log imports. In the long - term, if demand remains weak and North American log supply increases, valuation may stay weakly stable. The current price has reflected some negative factors, and further downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to demand recovery rhythm and FOB price changes [4] Group 6: Weekly Data Tracking Log Supply - New Zealand log arrivals in 13 Chinese ports from November 3 - 9 were about 571,000 cubic meters, up 16% week - on - week, a recent high. Next - week arrivals are expected to decrease. New Zealand ports shipped 400,000 cubic meters on 10 ships this week, with 360,000 cubic meters on 9 ships to China. The recovery of US log imports on November 10 will increase North American log supply in the long - term. Currently, North American log inventory is 100,000 cubic meters, down 9.09% week - on - week [12] Log Inventory - As of October 31, total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.88 million cubic meters, up 1.41% week - on - week. Radiata pine inventory was 2.36 million cubic meters, accounting for 82%, showing an obvious accumulation trend. North American log inventory was 100,000 cubic meters, down 9.09% week - on - week. Shandong and Jiangsu ports had concentrated inventory [12][15] Log Demand - As of October 31, the average daily outbound volume of 13 ports was 62,800 cubic meters, down 2.48% week - on - week, indicating weakening demand. Shandong's average daily outbound volume decreased by 9.89%, while Jiangsu's increased by 4.29%. As of November 4, construction site fund availability was 59.82%, up 0.12 percentage points week - on - week, but the improvement has not fully affected log procurement [21] Log Price - In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine in Rizhao Port was 750 yuan/cubic meter, down 1.32% week - on - week and 7.41% year - on - year. In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine in Taicang Port was 770 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged week - on - week and down 4.94% year - on - year. In Shandong, the price of 11.8 - meter spruce in Rizhao Port was 1,180 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged week - on - week and up 9.26% year - on - year [27] Downstream Timber Price - The mainstream transaction price of radiata pine timber was 1,270 yuan/cubic meter in Shandong and Jiangsu markets. The mainstream transaction price of spruce/white pine timber was 1,830 yuan/cubic meter in Shandong and 1,680 yuan/cubic meter in Jiangsu [32] Import Log Cost - New Zealand's November FOB price was quoted at $115 - 119, up $1 - 2 from October. Most traders thought it was high, and a price cut was possible within the month [38]
现货稳中趋弱，关注美原木进口恢复冲击
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-11-13 02:34