国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20251113

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Various futures products in the energy - chemical industry show different trends, including high - level oscillations, weakening trends, and short - term support. The market is affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, cost, and macro - events [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. PX, PTA, MEG - PX: Short - term may have a callback due to a sharp decline in overnight oil prices, but the medium - term trend is strong. Aromatic blending oil demand on the cost side supports the valuation, and the domestic device start - up rate reaches a new high [9]. - PTA: It is in a high - level oscillation market. Process fees should be shorted on rallies. Polyester load starts to rebound beyond expectations, but the future inventory accumulation pattern is clear, and the upward space for positive spreads is limited [9]. - MEG: Supply pressure is still large, and the unilateral price is weak. The port inventory will continue to accumulate, and the current price needs to test the cost line of coal - based devices [10]. b. Rubber - It is in an oscillatory operation. The cost support strengthens due to slow raw material supply caused by weather interference in production areas, but the cost side is weak, and the price increase is difficult [12][13]. c. Synthetic Rubber - In the short term, it forms an oscillatory and supported pattern due to a decline in inventory and improved spot trading. In the medium term, the weak operation of butadiene drives the downward movement of synthetic rubber prices [18]. d. Asphalt - The spot market is sluggish, and it is in a weakly oscillatory state. The weekly output decreases slightly, the factory inventory rate increases, and the social inventory rate decreases [19][30]. e. LLDPE - The profit of the monomer link is compressed, and attention should be paid to import pressure. The raw material oil price oscillates, the downstream demand has rigid support, but the mid - and downstream willingness to hold goods weakens after the price decline last week [31][32]. f. PP - The trend is weak. Trade wars, oil prices, high supply, and low profits of downstream processed products jointly form a downward pressure on prices [36]. g. Caustic Soda - The trend is weak. The high - production and high - inventory pattern continues, and the market continues to short the chlor - alkali profit. The demand side is affected by the alumina industry, and the supply pressure increases [41]. h. Pulp - It is in an oscillatory operation. The spot price remains high, and the futures price oscillates at a high level. The market is mainly driven by funds and supply - side expectations, but the downstream demand is weak [44][46]. i. Glass - The original sheet price is stable. The futures price oscillates downward, the spot market price is weakly sorted, and the downstream purchases at low prices [48]. j. Methanol - It is in a short - term oscillatory operation. The fundamental drive is downward due to high domestic supply and pressure on the MTO industry. The cost - side pricing logic weight increases slightly [52][53]. k. Urea - It operates within the valuation range. The domestic fundamental pressure is large, but the downward drive is weakened by policy regulation. The 01 contract has a strong pressure level at 1700 - 1720 yuan/ton and a support level at 1550 - 1560 yuan/ton [55][56]. l. Styrene - It is in a short - term oscillatory state. The contradiction is not significant, and the absolute valuation of pure benzene is low. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [57][58]. m. Soda Ash - The spot market changes little. The comprehensive supply decreases slightly, and the downstream demand is average. It is expected to oscillate steadily in the short term [59]. n. LPG and Propylene - LPG: Demand improvement is limited, and the disk valuation is high. - Propylene: Supply and demand narrow, and there is short - term support [62]. o. PVC - The trend still has pressure. The "alkali - supplementing chlorine" pattern in the profit chain is difficult to sustain, the demand of downstream products related to real estate is weak, and the inventory is high [71]. p. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel Oil: It has a sharp decline and is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It has a short - term retracement, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market remains high [73]. q. Short Fibers and Bottle Chips - Short Fibers: The peak - season demand continues, and it is in a short - term oscillatory market. - Bottle Chips: Supported by upstream products, it is in an oscillatory market [75][76]. r. Offset Printing Paper - It is in a low - level oscillation. The mainstream transaction prices in Shandong and Guangdong markets are stable, the paper mills maintain normal production, and the downstream purchases on a rigid basis [78][81]. s. Pure Benzene - Overseas blending oil starts, and it is mainly in a short - term oscillatory state. The port inventory decreases, and the spot price changes [83][84].