铅锌日评20251113：沪铅高位整理，沪锌或有回调-20251113

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For lead, due to high lead prices, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. Meanwhile, refinery profits are good, and production has recovered, improving the supply shortage. Thus, the lead price is under pressure above [1]. - For zinc, overseas structural risks have weakened, and there is insufficient momentum for the zinc price to continue rising. Attention should be paid to trading opportunities brought by the recovery of the Shanghai-London ratio. In the medium term, the mine end will tighten in the fourth quarter [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Price - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots increased by 0.14% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract rose by 1.26% compared to the previous day [1]. - The LME 3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) was $2,092.00 per ton, up 1.21% [1]. Spread - The basis of Shanghai lead was -335.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 195.00 yuan [1]. - The spreads of Shanghai lead in different months showed certain changes, such as the spread between the near - month and the continuous first contract being -60.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.00 yuan [1]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the active futures contract was 55,843.00 lots, an increase of 80.99% [1]. - The open interest of the active futures contract was 50,539.00 lots, a decrease of 8.29% [1]. Inventory - The LME inventory was 225,225.00 tons, with no change [1]. - The Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 24,686.00 tons, an increase of 3.86% [1]. Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, there is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise but difficult to fall. Some refineries have maintenance arrangements, and the operation of primary lead has a slight fluctuation. The operation of secondary lead has recovered to over 50%, and the supply has increased, but the inventory accumulation of refineries is not obvious [1]. - On the demand side, the terminal market has improved, the operation of lead - acid battery enterprises is okay, and the demand has increased. However, due to high lead prices, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened [1]. Trading Strategy - Hold the previous short positions [1]. Zinc Price - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.22% compared to the previous day, and the Shanghai zinc main contract rose by 0.02% compared to the previous day [1]. - The LME 3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) was $3,072.00 per ton, up 0.10% [1]. Spread - The basis of Shanghai zinc was -140.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55.00 yuan [1]. - The spreads of Shanghai zinc in different months also had changes, such as the spread between the near - month and the continuous first contract being -70.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.00 yuan [1]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the active futures contract was 71,426.00 lots, a decrease of 12.58% [1]. - The open interest of the active futures contract was 105,905.00 lots, a decrease of 1.46% [1]. Inventory - The LME inventory was 35,875.00 tons, with no change [1]. - The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 70,890.00 tons, an increase of 0.53% [1]. Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, zinc ore processing fees have continued to rise, but there may be a downward trend in domestic TC in October. The supply of refineries is expected to increase, and the export window of zinc ingots is expected to open [1]. - On the demand side, there is no significant improvement [1]. Trading Strategy - Wait for the opportunity to buy on dips after the callback [1]. Other Information - On November 11, the China Zinc Smelters Purchasing Team (CZSPT) held a quarterly meeting in Kunming, Yunnan, and released the guidance price range for the import zinc concentrate procurement US dollar processing fee before the end of the first quarter of 2026: 105 US dollars (average) - 120 US dollars (average) per dry ton [1]. - On November 11, the [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a premium of $117.04 per ton, and the open interest was 219,916 lots, a decrease of 750 lots [1]. - On November 11, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of $20.89 per ton, and the open interest was 153,641 lots, an increase of 2,117 lots [1].