Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities including energy, metals, and agricultural products, and provides investment suggestions based on supply - demand dynamics, policy impacts, and market sentiment [1][2][3] - Different commodities are expected to have different price trends, such as some in a downward trend, some in an upward trend, and others in a volatile pattern Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - Crude Oil: OPEC's November report adjusted the balance sheet from shortage to balance, and the market is pessimistic. There is still room for the oil price to decline this year, and short - selling opportunities on price rebounds are worth attention [1] - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: High - sulfur fuel oil supply is becoming more abundant, while low - sulfur fuel oil supply pressure is relieved. The strategy of expanding the high - low sulfur spread can be gradually closed [21] - Asphalt: The demand is lower than expected, and the inventory de - stocking is slowing down. Fundamental factors are negatively affecting the price [22] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: The international market is strong, supply is tight, and demand from both chemical and combustion sectors is improving. It is expected to be in a strong - side volatile pattern [23] - Urea: Affected by the export quota news, the price rebounded, but the domestic supply - demand is still loose, and the price may fall after the market sentiment calms down [24] - Methanol: The port is accumulating inventory, and the traditional downstream demand is weak. It may be under pressure in the short term, but it may rebound due to low valuation [25] Metals - Precious Metals: With the possible end of the US government shutdown and the expected change in the Fed's policy, precious metals are rebounding, and attention should be paid to the resistance at previous highs [2] - Base Metals - Copper: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in December. Wait for the social inventory data this week and pay attention to demand signals. Options trading strategies are suggested [3] - Aluminum: The price is relatively underestimated and is in a strong - side trend. The long - term supply - demand is expected to tighten, but the current fundamentals are stable. Pay attention to the resistance at 22,000 yuan and capital movements [4] - Zinc: The zinc ingot export window is open, and the low inventory supports the outer market. The domestic supply is expected to decrease, and the bottom support of Shanghai zinc is strong [7] - Lead: The demand for lead - acid batteries is expected to improve, and the price may rise. The low inventory supports the price in the short term [8] - Nickel & Stainless Steel: The nickel industry is in an over - supply situation, and the price is weakening [9] - Tin: The market is gambling on the current tight supply and the expected supply increase in the long - term. The domestic capital is actively entering the market [10] - Carbonate Lithium: The downstream demand is increasing, the inventory is decreasing, and the ore price is rising. It is expected to be in a strong - side volatile pattern in the short term [11] - Industrial Silicon: The production is expected to decline in November, and the cost may be supported in winter. The price will continue to fluctuate in the short term [12] - Polysilicon: The market is in a supply - demand double - weak situation, and the price will maintain a volatile pattern in the short term [13] - Ferroalloys - Manganese Silicon: The demand is decreasing, the production is still at a high level, and the inventory is slowly increasing. The price has strong bottom support [18] - Silicon Iron: The demand has some resilience, the supply is at a high level, and the cost increase may lead to a price rebound [19] Building Materials - Steel: The demand for both rebar and hot - rolled coils is weakening, and the inventory change is different. The market may continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to environmental protection restrictions [14] - Iron Ore: The supply is slightly stronger than last year, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to be volatile [15] - Coke & Coking Coal: The downstream demand is decreasing, and the price may be in a strong - side volatile pattern [16][17] Chemicals - Benzene & Its Derivatives: The supply of pure benzene may increase, and the demand is average. The price may be in a short - term consolidation and a mid - term decline. The supply of styrene may increase, and the demand is weak [26][27] - Polyolefins: The supply of polypropylene, plastic, and propylene is excessive, and the demand is weak. The price may be under pressure [28] - PVC & Caustic Soda: The supply of PVC is high, and the demand is low, and the price is in a low - level pattern. The demand for caustic soda is insufficient, and the price is weak [29] - PX & PTA: The supply - demand of the industrial chain is expected to decline, and the PTA inventory change is uncertain [30] - Ethylene Glycol: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. A short - selling strategy is recommended [31] - Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip: The demand for short - fiber and bottle - chip may weaken, and the price is mainly driven by cost [32] Agricultural Products - Grains - Soybeans & Soybean Meal: The fourth - quarter soybean supply is sufficient. Pay attention to the USDA's November report and potential long - buying opportunities after Sino - US trade eases [36] - Corn: The production is expected to increase, the selling progress is slower than expected, and the price may continue to be weak at the bottom [40] - Oils - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: Soybean oil is supported by the loss of import soybean crushing profit. Palm oil is in a high - inventory situation, and its price trend depends on future supply - demand [37] - Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil: The supply shortage of rapeseed is expected to ease, and the price is under short - term pressure [38] - Others - Cotton: The new cotton cost provides support, but the demand is average. The price may be in a volatile pattern [43] - Sugar: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar production in Guangxi is expected to be good [44] - Apples: The inventory is down year - on - year, but the quality is poor, and the de - stocking speed may be affected. A short - selling strategy is recommended [45] - Wood: The low inventory supports the price, and it is recommended to wait and see [46] - Paper Pulp: The inventory is decreasing, and the overseas price is strong. The short - term upward space may be limited [47] Financial Products - Stock Index: The A - share market is in a high - level volatile pattern. The end of the US government shutdown boosts market sentiment. Focus on technology, advanced manufacturing, consumption, and cyclical sectors [48] - Treasury Bonds: The treasury bond futures are rising, and the yield curve steepening is expected to end [49]
综合晨报-20251113
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-11-13 03:01