Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide overall industry investment ratings. However, it gives outlooks for various commodities, including "看多" (bullish) for copper, nickel, stainless steel, and soybeans, and "震荡" (sideways) for most other commodities such as aluminum, zinc, gold, silver, etc. [1] 2) Core Views - The A-share market is currently in a relatively vacuous macro environment, lacking a clear upward trend. It is in a sideways movement, accumulating momentum for the next upward move. With policy support and ample macro - liquidity, the stock index has strong downside support. [1] - The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upside. [1] - For commodities, different factors affect their prices. For example, high copper prices suppress downstream demand, but the increasing acceptance of copper prices by downstream and improved macro sentiment may lead to a stronger copper price. [1] 3) Summary by Commodity Categories Macro - Financial - The A - share market is in a sideways trend, accumulating energy for an upward move. With policy and liquidity support, the downside of the stock index is limited. Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term interest rate risk warnings restrict the upside. [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: High copper prices suppress downstream demand, but the increasing acceptance of copper prices by downstream and improved macro sentiment may lead to a stronger copper price. [1] - Aluminum: Limited industrial drivers recently, but improved macro sentiment leads to a stronger aluminum price. [1] - Alumina: With production still having a small profit, domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, resulting in a double - increase in production and inventory, and a weak fundamental pattern. [1] - Zinc: There is still a risk of a squeeze in LME zinc, and the zinc price is expected to remain high. However, due to the domestic supply surplus, caution is needed when chasing high prices. [1] - Nickel: The US Senate's progress on ending the government shutdown causes fluctuations in market risk appetite. Indonesia restricts nickel - related smelting project approvals. The nickel price may fluctuate in the short term, and high inventory pressure should be watched out for. [1] - Stainless Steel: The price of raw material ferronickel weakens, and the social inventory of stainless steel decreases slightly. Steel mills' production in November decreases. The stainless steel futures are looking for a bottom in a sideways movement. [1] - Tin: The raw material end has not recovered, and the new demand is expected to be good. It is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities on dips in the medium - to - long term. [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold: Supported by the dual - liquidity easing expectations of the US fiscal and monetary policies, but there are still differences within the Fed regarding a December interest rate cut. The gold price may fluctuate in a high - level range. [1] - Silver: Boosted by liquidity, the silver price may be stronger in the short term. [1] - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production capacity is recovering, and the impact of the dry season is weakening. Polysilicon production in November is decreasing. [1] - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of production capacity reduction in the long term, and the terminal installation in the fourth quarter is increasing marginally. [1] - Lithium Carbonate: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy storage demand is strong, but there is high hedging pressure. [1] Steel and Iron - Rebar: There are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season. After the macro sentiment is realized, attention should be paid to the upward pressure on prices. [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: The off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. Attention should be paid to the upward pressure on prices after the macro sentiment is realized. [1] - Iron Ore: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the far - month contract still has upward potential due to good commodity sentiment. [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: Coking coal is struggling at the previous high. Coke's price includes the expectation of five rounds of price increases, but the steel - coking game is intense. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long at low levels in the medium - to - long term. [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: A 4% production cut in Malaysia in early November fails to drive inventory reduction, and the domestic supply in the fourth quarter is relatively loose. [1] - Soybean Oil: China's commitment to purchase US soybeans has no substantial impact on soybean oil, and the domestic inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to be long in arbitrage. [1] - Cotton: The new domestic cotton harvest is expected to be good, and the purchase price supports the cost of lint. The downstream demand is weak, but there is rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver". [1] - Sugar: The global sugar supply changes from shortage to surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply pressure increases year - on - year. The Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the decline of the raw sugar price. [1] - Corn: The short - term market has a strong willingness to purchase high - quality corn, and the spot price is firm. The upward movement of the futures price lacks strong drivers before the supply pressure is fully released. [1] - Soybeans: The domestic soybean purchase and crushing profit is poor, and the purchase progress for the 12 - 1 ship is slow. The domestic futures are expected to follow the US market and move sideways and strongly before the USDA report. [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ plans to maintain a small increase in production in December. The short - term geopolitical situation cools down, and the market sentiment eases. [1] - Fuel Oil: Similar to crude oil, affected by OPEC+ production plans, geopolitical situation, and market sentiment. [1] - Asphalt: The raw material cost has strong support, the futures - spot price difference is low, and the commodity market sentiment is positive. [1] - Natural Rubber: The cost of butadiene provides insufficient support, the synthetic rubber supply is loose, and the price has stopped falling recently. [1] - PTA: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and domestic device problems lead to a decline in PTA production. [1] - Ethylene Glycol: The ethylene glycol price follows the decline of the crude oil price, and the coal - based cost support strengthens slightly. [1] - Short Fiber: The short - fiber price closely follows the cost due to the support of PX and the strengthening of the basis. [1] - Benzene and Styrene: The Asian benzene price is weak, the US benzene price rises, and the number of styrene overhauls increases. [1] - Urea: The export sentiment eases, the domestic demand is insufficient, but there is support from anti -内卷 policies and the cost end. [1] - PP: New production capacity is released, the overhaul intensity weakens, and the downstream improvement is less than expected. [1] - PVC: The market returns to fundamentals, the number of overhauls increases slightly, but demand weakens. [1] - Caustic Soda: Guangxi alumina starts delivery, the subsequent overhaul concentration decreases, the caustic soda inventory decreases, and there is a risk of a squeeze in the near - month contract. [1] - LPG: The international oil and gas fundamentals are loose, the CP/FEI price weakens, and the domestic LPG fundamentals are stable. [1] Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: The macro - positive sentiment is gradually digested, the peak - season price increase expectation is priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in November is relatively loose. [1]
日度策略参考-20251113
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-11-13 02:59