新能源及有色金属日报：沪锌下方支撑明确-20251113

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - The support for Shanghai zinc is clear. The TC of domestic and overseas zinc mines has decreased, squeezing the smelting profit, suppressing smelting enthusiasm, and reducing supply - side pressure. Overseas warehouse - receipt inventory is low with risks, and domestic inventory is falling, with micro - data turning from bearish to bullish under a positive macro - background [1][4] Key Points by Content Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is $117.04/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,610 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of - 45 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,580 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 75 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,570 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 85 yuan/ton [1] - Futures: On November 12, 2025, the Shanghai zinc main contract opened at 22,565 yuan/ton and closed at 22,680 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 71,426 lots, and the position was 105,905 lots. The highest price was 22,695 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,565 yuan/ton [2] - Inventory: As of November 12, 2025, the total inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots was 159,600 tons, up 900 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 35,875 tons, up 575 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - In November, domestic and overseas zinc mine TC decreased significantly. The smelting comprehensive profit has been compressed from about 1,400 yuan/ton to about 300 yuan/ton, and high - cost areas are facing losses, which will suppress smelting enthusiasm and reduce supply - side pressure. Overseas warehouse - receipt inventory is low with risks, and domestic inventory is falling [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5]