华宝期货晨报铝锭-20251113

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The finished products are expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center moving downward and showing a weak trend [1][2] - The aluminum price is expected to run strongly in the short - term, with the macro support being strong and the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic continuing, but the downstream is weakening and the pressure of inventory accumulation is increasing in the short - term [1][3] Summary by Relevant Content Finished Products - The short - process construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region will stop production and conduct maintenance from mid - to late January during the Spring Festival, and are expected to resume production between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown period [1] - In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the remaining steel mills will stop production and have holidays around mid - January, with an estimated daily impact on output of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown period [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 40.3% and a year - on - year increase of 43.2% [2] - The finished products continued to fluctuate downward yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, resulting in a continuous downward shift of the price center. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing little support for prices [2] - The later focus includes macro - policies and downstream demand [2] Aluminum - Domestically, the output of bauxite has decreased. Although the mine enterprises in Shanxi and Henan that were shut down due to environmental protection policies and the rainy season previously are now eligible for resumption, they still need government approval. Some compliant mines are expected to resume production on a small scale before the end of the year. With sufficient imported supplies, some mining enterprises have increased the proportion of imported high - temperature ore to maintain output, and the price of domestic bauxite is expected to remain stable in the short term [2] - Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 61.6%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous week. The operating rate of aluminum cables decreased by 2 percentage points, and the operating rate of the aluminum profile industry dropped to 52.6%. The operating rates of aluminum strip and aluminum foil leading enterprises also decreased slightly. The overall operating rate is expected to continue to shrink [2] - On November 13, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 621,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from Monday and 1,000 tons from last Thursday [2] - Overseas, affected by high import tariffs and global supply shortages, the premium of the US spot market aluminum price has reached a record high [2] - The aluminum price is expected to run strongly in the short term, with strong macro - support and a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic continuing. However, with the arrival of the off - season, the downstream is weakening and the pressure of inventory accumulation is increasing. Later, attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend and the high - level pressure [3] - The later focus includes changes in macro - expectations, the development of geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [3]