一份指南：关于“高低切”

Group 1 - The report outlines the "A-share high-low cut index" as a tool to track the pricing patterns in the A-share market, indicating that an increase in the index suggests a rise in the differentiation of returns among industries, while a peak followed by a decline indicates the emergence of high-low cut phenomena [1][2] - The report notes that typically, the A-share market experiences 2-3 significant high-low cut pricing cycles within a year, each lasting approximately 2-3 months. When the index exceeds the upper range (around 60%), it often signals an overheated high-position sector, while a drop to the lower range (around 30%) suggests the end of a low-position rebound or the brewing of a new differentiation cycle [1][3] - The report explains that high-low differentiation in the A-share market is driven by chip differentiation and fundamental divergence, particularly when there is a significant influx of capital and stark growth differences between high and low sectors [2][3] Group 2 - The report discusses the relationship between the high-low cut index and market structure, indicating that when the index peaks and declines, it often signals a recovery in low-position sectors, but the clarity of style switching depends on the logic signals from low-position sectors [3][4] - The report highlights that the high-low cut index often correlates with the overall market index, particularly when the index peaks and declines, which can signal a transition from a bull to a bear market [3][4] - The report emphasizes that since late October, the outperformance of overseas and low-position cyclical sectors has begun to manifest, with the report suggesting that true style switching will occur when liquidity transitions to a fundamental-driven market [4][5] Group 3 - The report provides a historical review of high-low cut phenomena, detailing significant transitions in market styles from 2017 to 2025, including shifts from cyclical sectors to consumer and technology sectors, and from high-dividend defensive sectors to low-position rebounds [6][10] - The report notes that the high-low cut phenomenon in 2023 was characterized by a shift from technology-driven sectors to low-position cyclical sectors, driven by policy catalysts in the real estate market [19][22] - The report indicates that the most recent high-low cut in October 2025 reflects a transition from high-position technology sectors to low-position cyclical resources, influenced by macroeconomic factors and policy expectations [27][28]