Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of industrial silicon remains stable, and its futures market is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment. During the dry season, the cost in the southwest region increases, and the start - up rate drops significantly. The supply - demand pattern has slightly improved, and the valuation is relatively low, but currently lacks driving factors, so the market is mainly in a state of shock [2]. - The polysilicon futures market is greatly disturbed by policy - related news, resulting in wide - range fluctuations. Currently, the consumer side shows average performance, and policies are still being promoted. The market fluctuates greatly, and participants need to pay attention to risk management and continuously follow up on policy implementation. It is expected that the market will maintain wide - range fluctuations [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Market Analysis - On November 12, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 9165 yuan/ton and closed at 9195 yuan/ton, a change of (-40) yuan/ton or (-0.43)% compared with the previous day's settlement. At the close, the position of the 2601 main contract was 262136 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on November 12, 2025 was 45936 lots, a change of - 143 lots compared with the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. According to SMM data, the price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon in East China was 9400 - 9600 (0) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9700 - 9800 (0) yuan/ton, the price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang was 8800 - 8900 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of 99 silicon was 8800 - 8900 (0) yuan/ton [1]. - In terms of consumption, the quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 11000 - 11300 (0) yuan/ton. The monomer industry organized a meeting, and most monomer factories have officially closed their positions and temporarily stopped quoting. The market quotation will be suspended until the end of the meeting, and then enterprises will restart the quotation process according to the final agreement of the meeting [2]. - Strategy - Spot price is stable. The industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment. During the dry season, the cost in the southwest region increases, and the start - up rate drops significantly. The supply - demand pattern has slightly improved, and the valuation is relatively low, but currently lacks driving factors, so the market is mainly in a state of shock [2]. - Unilateral: Short - term wait - and - see, and consider buying on dips [3]. - Cross - period: None [3]. - Cross - variety: None [3]. - Spot - futures: None [3]. - Options: None [3]. Automobile Industry - Production and Sales Data - Passenger cars: In October 2025, the production and sales of passenger cars were 2.995 million and 2.961 million respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 3.3% and 3.6% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 10.7% and 7.5% respectively. From January to October 2025, the production and sales of passenger cars were 24.237 million and 24.209 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 13.5% and 12.9% respectively [2]. - Commercial vehicles: In October 2025, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 364,000 and 361,000 respectively, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.3% and 1.9% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 25.4% and 21% respectively. From January to October 2025, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 3.456 million and 3.479 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 10.9% and 9% respectively [2]. - New energy vehicles: In October 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 21.1% and 20% respectively. From January to October 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 13.015 million and 12.943 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 33.1% and 32.7% respectively [2]. - Exports: In October 2025, automobile exports were 666,000, with a month - on - month increase of 2.1% and a year - on - year increase of 22.9%. From January to October 2025, automobile exports were 5.616 million, with a year - on - year increase of 15.7% [2]. Polysilicon - Market Analysis - On November 12, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures fluctuated widely, opening at 51890 yuan/ton and closing at 53460 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of 0.43% compared with the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 140617 (138468 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on that day was 413154 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 49.40 - 54.90 (-0.05) yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [5]. - According to SMM statistics, the inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers decreased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 25.90, with a month - on - month change of - 0.77%, the silicon wafer inventory was 17.52GW, with a month - on - month change of - 7.45%. The weekly polysilicon output was 27000.00 tons, with a month - on - month change of - 4.30%, and the silicon wafer output was 13.45GW, with a month - on - month change of - 5.55% [5]. - In terms of silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.28 (0.00) yuan/piece, the price of N - type 210mm was 1.63 (0.00) yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.28 (-0.02) yuan/piece. After the demand expectation weakened, the price of silicon wafers accelerated its decline, and the decline rate of 183 was faster than that of 210R. Currently, only the price of 210N was relatively supported [5]. - In terms of battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27(0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28(0.00) yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.31(0.00) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.30(0.00) yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.28(0.00) yuan/W. The price of HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37(0.00) yuan/W [5]. - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 (0.00) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W [6]. - Strategy - Unilateral: Operate within the range, and it is expected to operate within the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [9]. - Cross - period: None [9]. - Cross - variety: None [9]. - Spot - futures: None [9]. - Options: None [9].
新能源及有色金属日报：消息面扰动较多，多晶硅盘面宽幅震荡-20251113
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-11-13 03:06