贵金属日报：鸽派候选人哈塞特称愿担任美联储主席-20251113

Report Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [9] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [10] - Options: On hold [10] Core View - Market risk sentiment is emerging, and the expectation that Hassett may become the Fed Chairman is rising, which may increase the demand for gold investment. Gold prices are expected to be in a range of 940 - 980 yuan/gram. Silver prices are expected to be in a range of 12300 - 12800 yuan/kilogram, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to continue to narrow [9][10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The U.S. House of Representatives will vote on a temporary appropriation bill on Wednesday evening, which may end the 43-day government shutdown. The shutdown may reduce Q4 economic growth by two percentage points, and the October CPI and employment reports may not be released. Hassett said he would accept the nomination to replace Powell as Fed Chairman and hopes for a larger rate cut in December [2]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On November 12, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures closed at 945.76 yuan/gram, down 0.33% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 41087 lots and an open interest of 129725 lots. The night session closed at 963.32 yuan/gram, up 1.86% from the afternoon session. The Shanghai silver futures closed at 12073 yuan/kilogram, up 1.62% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 669617 lots and an open interest of 235542 lots. The night session closed at 12508 yuan/kilogram, up 3.60% from the afternoon session [3]. U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 12, 2025, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was 4.069%, up 0.2 BP from the previous day, and the 10-2 year spread was 0.507%, down 0.9 BP from the previous day [4]. SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Volume Changes - On November 12, 2025, on the Au2512 contract, long positions decreased by 5535 lots and short positions decreased by 879 lots. The total trading volume of gold contracts decreased by 8.42% from the previous day. On the Ag2512 contract, long positions increased by 5210 lots and short positions increased by 1601 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts increased by 8.09% from the previous day [5]. Precious Metal ETF Holdings Tracking - On November 12, 2025, the gold ETF holdings were 1046.36 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the silver ETF holdings were 15089 tons, also unchanged from the previous day [6]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On November 12, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 2.24 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1184.64 yuan/kilogram. The SHFE gold-silver ratio was about 78.34, down 1.92% from the previous day, and the foreign gold-silver ratio was 80.75, down 0.91% from the previous day [7]. Fundamental Analysis - On November 12, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 51666 kilograms, down 18.05% from the previous day, and the trading volume of silver was 870430 kilograms, up 20.04% from the previous day. The gold delivery volume was 11872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 29970 kilograms [8].