新能源及有色金属日报：铝价快速拉涨，警惕情绪扰动-20251113

Report Investment Ratings - Unilateral: Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: SHFE aluminum calendar spread long [9] Core Views - For electrolytic aluminum, overseas supply and demand are not in an oversupply situation, and domestic fundamentals are stable. Although the recent price increase lacks fundamental support, the price is undervalued, and a deep decline is unlikely. If inventory reduction is smooth, the price may break through upwards. For alumina, the supply pressure remains high, the over - supply pattern persists, and the price is undervalued, but there may be overseas disturbances. [6][8] Key Data Summary Aluminum Spot - On November 12, 2025, the East China A00 aluminum price was 21,670 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 21,550 yuan/ton; the Foshan A00 aluminum price was 21,530 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] Aluminum Futures - On November 12, 2025, the SHFE aluminum main contract opened at 21,660 yuan/ton, closed at 21,880 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 223,798 lots and a position of 420,066 lots [2] Inventory - As of November 12, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 627,000 tons, up 5,000 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 63,818 tons, down 324 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 544,075 tons, down 1,150 tons from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot Price - On November 12, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,840 yuan/ton, Shandong was 2,795 yuan/ton, Henan was 2,865 yuan/ton, Guangxi was 2,930 yuan/ton, Guizhou was 2,950 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 320 US dollars/ton [2] Alumina Futures - On November 12, 2025, the alumina main contract opened at 2,815 yuan/ton, closed at 2,821 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.18%, with a trading volume of 267,963 lots and a position of 412,758 lots [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On November 12, 2025, the Baotai civil raw aluminum purchase price was 17,000 yuan/ton, the mechanical raw aluminum purchase price was 17,200 yuan/ton, and the ADC12 Baotai quotation was 21,000 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The aluminum alloy social inventory was 72,800 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 59,900 tons [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 21,042 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 142 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - Overseas supply and demand are not in an oversupply situation, and domestic fundamentals are stable. The recent price increase lacks fundamental support, but the price is undervalued. Be vigilant against short - term corrections, and pay attention to the inventory reduction rhythm [6] Alumina - The supply pressure of bauxite remains high, the over - supply pattern persists, and the price is undervalued. However, there may be overseas disturbances [7][8]