光大期货能化商品日报-20251113

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall oil price will continue to fluctuate under the future supply - demand re - balance. The fuel oil market, including both low - sulfur and high - sulfur, is expected to see a continued reversal in the market structure, with the LU - FU spread likely to maintain an upward trend. The asphalt price is currently viewed bearishly. PX&TA will follow the cost - end fluctuations in the short term, while the ethylene glycol price is under pressure. The rubber price is expected to fluctuate due to the supply - demand imbalance. Methanol will maintain a bottom - level oscillation, and the polyolefin price will enter a phase of weakening oscillation. PVC will tend to oscillate at the bottom [1][3][5][7][8] Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Crude Oil: On Wednesday, the oil price dropped significantly. The WTI 12 - month contract closed at $58.49 per barrel, down $2.55 or 4.18%. The Brent 1 - month contract closed at $62.71 per barrel, down $2.45 or 3.76%. SC2512 closed at 450.8 yuan per barrel, down 15.8 yuan or 3.39%. OPEC expects global oil supply and demand to balance next year. EIA predicts that this year and 2026 will see record - high US oil production, with an average of 13.6 million barrels per day. API data shows that last week, US API crude inventory increased by 1.3 million barrels [1] - Fuel Oil: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contracts on the SHFE closed higher. The Asian low - sulfur market faces supply surpluses and weak downstream demand, but the East - West arbitrage window is almost closed. The Asian high - sulfur market is supported by stable downstream demand, and the LU - FU spread may continue to rebound [3] - Asphalt: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract on the SHFE closed higher. This week, the social inventory rate decreased by 0.80% to 28.50%, the domestic asphalt plant operating rate decreased by 0.36% to 33.50%, and the domestic refinery asphalt inventory level increased by 0.6% to 28.45%. Since November, asphalt production has decreased by 4.3% and consumption by 13.1% [3] - Polyester: TA601 and EG2601 closed higher on Wednesday. The PX futures contract also closed up. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. A 360,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Taiwan is restarting. PX&TA will follow cost - end fluctuations, and ethylene glycol is under supply pressure [3][5] - Rubber: On Wednesday, rubber futures closed higher. In the first 10 months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports increased by 13.8% year - on - year. In October, exports increased by 6.6% year - on - year but decreased by 4.1% month - on - month. The supply pressure is increasing, and the external demand for tires is weakening [5] - Methanol: On Wednesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2072 yuan per ton. Domestic overhauled plants are resuming production, but Iranian plants may shut down from late November to December, which may lead to a decline in port inventory from mid - December to early January [7] - Polyolefins: On Wednesday, the prices of polyolefins were reported. The short - term production will remain high, but the downstream orders and operating rates will weaken after the e - commerce activities. The prices are expected to enter a weakly oscillating phase [7] - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): On Wednesday, the PVC market prices in East, North, and South China showed different trends. The supply remains high, domestic demand is slowing, and exports are affected by India's anti - dumping policy. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [8] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The table provides data on the basis of various energy - chemical products on November 13, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9] 3. Market News - OPEC's monthly report shows that due to increased production from a broader OPEC group, global oil supply and demand are expected to balance next year. EIA's STEO report indicates that this year's US oil production will reach a record - high, with an average of 13.6 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2026 [13] 4. Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Prices: Multiple charts display the historical closing prices of main contracts for various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [15][16][17] - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: Charts show the basis trends of main contracts for different products over the years, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [33][37][38] - 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: Charts present the spreads between different contracts of products like fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA, as well as the spreads of shipping indices [45][47][50] - 4.4 Inter - product Spreads: Charts show the spreads between different products, including crude oil's internal - external spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spreads, and the ratios between fuel oil and asphalt [60][62][64] - 4.5 Production Profits: Charts display the production profits of LLDPE and PP [69] 5. Team Member Introduction - The team consists of several analysts, including Zhong Meiyan (Director of Energy - Chemical Research), Du Bingqin (Analyst for Crude Oil, etc.), Di Yilin (Analyst for Natural Rubber and Polyester), and Peng Haibo (Analyst for Methanol and Polyolefins), each with their own professional backgrounds and achievements [74][75][76]