华宝期货晨报铁矿石-20251113

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic and international macro environment is in a vacuum, with the core focus of the fundamentals on the domestic demand side. The supply side remains stable with a slight increase. Currently in the seasonal production - reduction period, overall demand is on a marginal decline. However, considering the low inventory level at the steel - mill end, large basis rate, and significant internal - external price difference, the current price is expected to be at a relatively low level. In the short term, there's no need to be overly pessimistic. Overall, the price is expected to move down but remain range - bound [2]. - The price is expected to operate within a range. The main contract of Dalian Iron Ore Futures is expected to be in the range of 750 - 785 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market price of about 100.5 - 104.5 US dollars/ton. The strategy is to conduct range operations and sell put options [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - External iron ore shipments declined on a week - on - week basis but remained at a high level year - on - year, with the supply - side support remaining weak. As of the week ending November 10, the total global iron ore shipments were 3,069.0 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 144.8 million tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,548.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 210.6 million tons. From the perspective of the 5 - week average shipments, the global iron ore shipments were 3,242.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 216 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,797.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 295.3 million tons [2]. Demand - The loss - making range of domestic blast - furnace steel mills continues to expand. In addition, environmental protection restrictions in Handan have been tightened, leading to an increase in the number of blast - furnace overhauls. Multiple regions such as Shanxi, Shaanxi, Jiangsu, and Northeast China have seen a decline in demand and losses. Although the number of blast - furnace restarts in North China has increased, due to the sintering restriction policy in North China, the blast - furnace operating rate has increased while the molten iron output has decreased. Overall, domestic iron ore demand has shown a trend of decline due to environmental protection factors and shrinking production profits, which is in line with the seasonal production - reduction pattern. There is also an expectation of seasonal production cuts by steel mills in regions such as Xinjiang in the later stage. It is likely that the molten iron output will continue to decline slowly [2]. Inventory - Under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, the inventory at domestic ports has continued to accumulate. In the short term, the pressure on the supply side remains, and although the decline rate of the demand side may slow down, it is still in a downward cycle. As of November 7, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports across the country was 14,898.83 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 356.35 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 370.23 million tons [2].