Metal Futures Daily Strategy：有色金属月度策略-20251113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - farm data in the US is poor, but the expected end of the government shutdown and improved inflation data in China support copper prices. Despite short - term demand suppression, in the long run, due to supply constraints and seasonal demand, the copper price center is expected to rise [3]. - For zinc, there are both bullish and bearish factors. With the expectation of production cuts in November and weakening downstream demand, the upward momentum is not strong, and attention should be paid to macro - driving and overseas support [4]. - The aluminum market has strong capital inflows, and it is recommended to hold long positions. Alumina is expected to stabilize and rebound, and the cast - aluminum alloy is expected to strengthen [5]. - The continuous decline in Indonesian tin exports has raised concerns about supply, and it is recommended to take a bullish view on tin [6]. - For lead, although supply is improving, there is still some support from overseas prices. Short - term strength is expected, but the upside space needs to be cautious [7]. - Nickel and stainless steel are in a weak position. Nickel has high inventory pressure, and stainless steel has a weak supply - demand situation, with a slow downward trend in the price center [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Advice - Macro Logic: The non - ferrous sector is in an upward trend. The expected end of the US government shutdown and the improvement of China's PPI have boosted market sentiment. However, the market is also concerned about real - demand. Copper, aluminum, and tin are relatively strong, while nickel and stainless steel are at a low level [11]. - Strategy for Each Variety - Copper: With improved market sentiment and supply constraints, and entering the seasonal demand peak, it is recommended to gradually go long on dips. The upper pressure range is 89,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton [3]. - Zinc: There are both bullish and bearish factors. It is recommended to be bullish on dips. The upper pressure is around 22,800 - 23,000, and the lower support is around 22,300 - 22,400 [4]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: For aluminum, it is recommended to hold long positions. Alumina is recommended to be observed, and the cast - aluminum alloy is recommended to be bullish [5]. - Tin: It is recommended to take a bullish view. The upper pressure range is 300,000 - 310,000, and the lower support range is 260,000 - 270,000 [6]. - Lead: It is recommended to use a covered - call strategy. The short - term lower support is around 17,300 - 17,400, and the upper pressure is around 17,800 - 18,000 [7]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: For nickel, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on dips. Stainless steel is in a volatile range, with the lower support around 12,400 - 12,500 and the upper pressure around 12,800 - 13,000 [8]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - Futures Closing Prices and Changes: Copper closed at 86,840 with a 0.24% increase; zinc at 22,680 with a 0.02% increase; aluminum at 21,880 with a 0.99% increase; alumina at 2821 with a 0.18% increase; tin at 292,440 with a 1.48% increase; lead at 17,660 with a 1.26% increase; nickel at 118,710 with a 0.56% decrease; stainless steel at 12,425 with a 0.32% decrease; and cast - aluminum alloy at 21,245 with a 0.97% increase [15][16]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - Different non - ferrous metal varieties have different net long - short positions and changes. For example, the net long - short position of沪银(AG2512) is a strong long position, and the net long - short position of沪锡(SN2512) is a strong short position [19]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - Spot Prices and Changes: The spot price of copper is around 87,000 yuan/ton with a small increase; zinc is around 22,500 - 22,600 yuan/ton with a slight decrease; aluminum is around 21,500 - 21,700 yuan/ton with a small increase; alumina is around 2800 - 2870 yuan/ton; tin is around 290,000 - 291,000 yuan/ton with an increase; lead is around 17,150 yuan/ton with an increase; nickel is around 119,000 yuan/ton with a decrease; stainless steel is around 12,700 yuan/ton; and the cast - aluminum alloy is around 21,400 yuan/ton [20][21]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - The report provides various charts related to the industry chain of each non - ferrous metal, such as inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends [24][27][29]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - The report presents charts related to the arbitrage of each non - ferrous metal, including the ratio of domestic and foreign prices, basis, and spread [56][57][59]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - The report shows charts of historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and open interest of options for each non - ferrous metal [71][73][76].