原油日报：机构报告影响偏空，油价大幅回落-20251113

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The market previously had differences on the issue of oil surplus, but with the release of institutional reports, a consensus on future surplus is gradually reached. Since Q3, oil supplies in the Middle East, Latin America, and Russia have increased significantly, and the problem of oil inventory accumulation will become more prominent in the future [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light - sweet crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $2.55 to close at $58.49 per barrel, a decline of 4.18%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for January delivery fell $2.45 to close at $62.71 per barrel, a decline of 3.76%. The main SC crude oil contract closed down 3.39% at 451 yuan per barrel [1]. - As of the week ending November 12, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 21.181 million barrels, an increase of 3.204 million barrels from the previous week. Light distillate inventories increased by 1.074 million barrels to 7.877 million barrels, medium distillate inventories decreased by 0.222 million barrels to 3.012 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventories increased by 2.352 million barrels to 11.012 million barrels [1]. - Crude oil futures extended losses during U.S. trading hours. After OPEC+ predicted an increase in competitors' supply, market concerns about oversupply intensified. The organization maintained its forecasts for oil demand this year and next but raised its estimate of non - OPEC+ production for next year. The IEA said in its annual report that under the existing policy scenario, oil and gas demand may continue to grow until 2050. However, progress in the U.S. government's reopening and the prospect of further interest rate cuts this year limited further price losses of crude oil [1]. - The OPEC monthly report shows that the global crude oil demand growth rate forecast for 2025 is 1.3 million barrels per day (previously estimated at 1.3 million barrels per day), and for 2026 is 1.38 million barrels per day (previously estimated at 1.38 million barrels per day). Despite the OPEC+ production increase agreement, the average crude oil production of OPEC+ in October was 43.02 million barrels per day, a decrease of 73,000 barrels per day from September [1]. - UK Foreign Secretary Cooper announced on the 11th a plan to phase - out the provision of shipping, insurance and other services for Russian LNG exports by UK companies starting in 2026, aiming to cut off Russia's funding from energy exports and end the Russia - Ukraine conflict. This is a new round of sanctions against Russia's energy sector following last month's sanctions on Russian oil companies [1]. Investment Logic - The market previously had differences on the oil surplus problem. With the release of institutional reports, a consensus on future surplus is gradually reached. Although market differentiation due to sanctions still exists, oil supplies in the Middle East, Latin America, and Russia have increased significantly since Q3, and the problem of oil inventory accumulation will be more prominent in the future [2]. Strategy - In the short term, oil prices will fluctuate weakly. In the medium term, a short - position allocation is recommended, and short the calendar spread (long far - month contracts and short near - month contracts, for Brent or WTI) [3].