航运衍生品数据日报-20251113

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The Red Sea crisis has officially ended after two years, and the market balance will shift to shippers in 2026 with supply - demand imbalance intensifying and freight rates falling [6]. - Maersk's twin - star advantage shows with annual cost savings of $7.2 - 9.5 billion and a punctuality rate of over 90%, enabling a strategic position for price war and service premium [6]. - In November, shipping capacity has recovered, with available capacity on US gateway routes increasing by 10 - 15%, and overall TPBB route capacity expected to fluctuate between 83% - 88% [6]. - The EC market shows a pattern of near - term strength and far - term weakness, affected by factors such as 02 contract delivery time changes and Maersk's open - cabin price reduction, as well as the end of the Red Sea armed attacks [7]. - Spot prices show obvious differentiation. Key influencing factors include peak - season demand fulfillment, shipping company strategies, and geopolitical and long - term agreement variables. In the short term, the market is likely to maintain a strong - side shock, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the main contract [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shipping Freight Index - SCFI: The current value is 1495, down 3.59% from the previous value of 1551 [4]. - CCFI: The current value is 1058, up 3.60% from the previous value of 1021 [4]. - SCFI - related routes: SCFI - US West is 2212, down 16.43%; SCFIS - US West is 1329, up 10.02%; SCFI - US East is 2848, down 17.16%; SCFI - Northwest Europe is 1323, down 1.56%; SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 1504, up 24.50%; SCFI - Mediterranean is 2029, up 2.32% [4]. Shipping Derivative Contracts - Contract Prices: For contracts like EC2506, EC2608, etc., price changes range from - 4.72% to 0.19% [4][5]. - Contract Positions: Positions for contracts such as EC2606, EC2608, etc., have different changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [5]. - Monthly Spreads: The 12 - 02 monthly spread is 112.8, up 57.2 from the previous value; the 12 - 04 spread is 577.4, up 19.1; the 02 - 04 spread is 464.6, down 38.1 [5]. Market Strategy - The recommended strategy is to wait and see [9].