Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn prices are expected to rise. The corn futures and spot prices have been increasing recently due to the upward - adjusted port quotes, policy expectations, and the technical breakthrough of the main 2601 contract. It is recommended to continue participating in short - term long positions [1]. - The trend of soybean meal is expected to be oscillatory. CBOT soybeans rose on Wednesday, and the market is waiting for the USDA supply - demand report. Domestically, soybean meal continues the oscillatory and strengthening trend due to cost support. The strategy is to hold futures long positions and sell out - of - the - money call options [1]. - The trend of oils is expected to be oscillatory. BMD palm oil stopped rising on Wednesday. Domestic rapeseed oil continued to rise, while palm oil showed weak upward momentum. The strategy is to participate in short - term long positions [1]. - The trend of eggs is expected to be oscillatory. Egg futures prices continued to correct on Wednesday. In the short term, egg prices in production areas are mostly stable, and terminal demand is mediocre. The supply is expected to decline slowly, but the uncertain factor of old chicken culling remains. If the production capacity is accelerated for elimination, consider going long at low prices; otherwise, adopt an oscillatory trading idea [1]. - The trend of pigs is expected to be oscillatory. On Wednesday, the near - term pig contracts were weak, while the far - term ones were strong. The far - term 2609 contract is expected to continue the oscillatory and strengthening trend, and short - term attention should be paid to the pressure of the 40 - day moving average [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Research Views - Corn: On Wednesday, corn futures and spot prices increased. The main 2601 contract reduced positions and rose. North port prices increased continuously, and prices in most Northeast production areas also rose. The futures market was strong, and some farmers were reluctant to sell. Technically, the main 2601 contract broke through the bottom neckline, and it is recommended to continue participating in short - term long positions [1]. - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans rose on Wednesday, waiting for the USDA supply - demand report. Analysts predict that the US 2025/26 soybean production will be 4.266 billion bushels, with an average yield of 53.1 bushels per acre and an expected inventory of 304 million bushels. Domestically, soybean meal continued the oscillatory and strengthening trend due to cost support. The expected soybean crushing volume of oil mills this week will return to over 2.3 million tons, and the market supply is sufficient. The strategy is futures long positions + selling out - of - the - money call options [1]. - Oils: BMD palm oil stopped rising on Wednesday due to the strengthening of the Malaysian ringgit and the decline in crude oil prices. Malaysia's 2025 palm oil production exceeded 20 million tons. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% - 12.3% month - on - month. Domestically, rapeseed oil continued to rise, and palm oil showed weak upward momentum. The strategy is to participate in short - term long positions [1]. - Eggs: On Wednesday, egg futures prices continued to correct. The main 2512 contract fell 2.82% to 3063 yuan/500 kilograms, and the 2601 contract fell 1.51% to 3322 yuan/500 kilograms. The national egg price was 2.94 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin. In the short term, egg prices in production areas are mostly stable, and terminal demand is mediocre. Before February next year, the new supply will continue to decline. If the production capacity is accelerated for elimination, consider going long at low prices; otherwise, adopt an oscillatory trading idea [1]. - Pigs: On Wednesday, the near - term pig contracts were weak, while the far - term ones were strong. The far - term 2607 and 2609 contracts rose strongly under the expectation of policy - driven production capacity reduction. The pig prices in production and sales areas decreased jointly. The 2609 contract is expected to continue the oscillatory and strengthening trend, and short - term attention should be paid to the pressure of the 40 - day moving average [2]. Market Information - Malaysia's 2025 crude palm oil production will increase by 3.4% year - on - year to a record 20 million tons [3]. - The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 10 is 190,533 tons, a 49.53% decrease compared with the same period last month [3]. - As of the week of November 5, Argentine farmers sold 2.867 million tons of 2024/25 soybeans, with a cumulative sales volume of 38.8346 million tons. They also sold 311,000 tons of 2025/26 soybeans, with a cumulative sales volume of 4.1747 million tons. The total sales volume of all - year soybeans in that week was 322,000 tons, with a cumulative sales volume of 83.9843 million tons. As of November 5, the cumulative export sales registration volume of 2024/25 soybeans was 12.264 million tons, and that of 2025/26 soybeans was 1.867 million tons [4]. Variety Spreads - Contract Spreads: There are charts showing the 1 - 5 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs, but no specific data analysis is provided [6][7][10][12]. - Contract Basis: There are charts showing the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs, but no specific data analysis is provided [15][18][19][24].
光大期货农产品日报-20251113
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-11-13 06:34