工业硅、多晶硅日报-20251113

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 12, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2601 closed at 9,195 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.43%, and the open interest decreased by 8,823 lots to 262,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon from Baichuan was 9,692 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product 421 remained stable at 8,950 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 245 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2601 closed at 53,460 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.43%, and the open interest increased by 2,149 lots to 141,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon was 52,000 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was 52,000 yuan/ton. The spot premium narrowed to 665 yuan/ton [2]. - Silicon factories in the southwest region reduced production on a large scale. However, due to the simultaneous production cuts in the downstream, the inventory reduction rhythm was not achieved. The futures market priced in the production cut expectation in advance and declined due to the drag of crystalline silicon. In November, the production schedules of polysilicon materials and downstream silicon wafers both declined. The planned production cut scale of silicon materials exceeded that of the downstream, but under the strong quota limit of silicon wafers, the production cut rhythm was ahead of the upstream [2]. - As the impact of the polysilicon capacity platform news faded, the short - term weak reality led the futures market to enter a low - level consolidation stage. A industry meeting was held, and there were rumors in the market about the progress of the capacity platform. The person in charge of the Photovoltaic Association expressed the determination to fight against involution. The polysilicon futures market was dominated by multiple news, and the volatility continued to increase. Investors were advised to be cautious [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - Industrial silicon fluctuated weakly on the 12th, while polysilicon fluctuated strongly. Southwest silicon factories cut production, but failed to reduce inventory due to downstream production cuts. The market priced in the production cut expectation in advance and was in a low - level consolidation stage. The polysilicon market was affected by multiple news, with increasing volatility [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 9,180 yuan/ton on November 11 to 9,195 yuan/ton on November 12, an increase of 15 yuan/ton. The prices of various grades of spot industrial silicon remained stable, and the spot discount widened to 245 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 46,079, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 5,365 tons to 230,900 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 4,700 tons to 447,700 tons [2][3]. Polysilicon - The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 51,930 yuan/ton on November 11 to 53,460 yuan/ton on November 12, an increase of 1,530 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various grades of polysilicon remained stable, and the spot premium narrowed to 665 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 9,850, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 0.8 tons to 29.55 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.1 tons to 27.7 tons [2][3]. Organic Silicon - The price of DMC in the East China market remained stable at 11,000 yuan/ton. The prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained stable, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,700 yuan/ton to 13,500 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, price differences between grades, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][11]. 3.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [14][16][18]. 3.3 Inventory - Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [23][25]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [28][30][35].