尿素早评20251113：价格底部或逐步明朗-20251113

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The bottom of the current urea price may gradually become clear. Although urea has rebounded recently, the strength is limited, and the valuation is still at a relatively low level, reflecting the current pattern of strong urea supply and weak demand. From a driving perspective, the new round of export quotas will alleviate the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to a certain extent, and the winter reserve demand will support the price. Low prices may stimulate storage - enterprises to enter the market. The low valuation of urea is the result of the market's consensus on the pressure of oversupply, but from the driving perspective, the urea price is supported at a low level, and the price bottom may gradually become clear [1] - The trading strategy is to take profit on sold options and pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium - and long - term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - Futures Prices: - UR01 in Shanxi closed at 1655 yuan/ton on November 12, up 15 yuan (0.91%) from November 11. UR05 closed at 1728 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan (0.64%); UR09 closed at 1748 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (0.58%) [1] - The futures price in Shandong on November 12 was 1600 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (-0.62%) from the previous day [1] - Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule): - In Henan, it was 1610 yuan/ton on November 12, down 10 yuan (-0.62%); in Hebei, it remained unchanged at 1630 yuan/ton; in the Northeast, it was 1650 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan (2.48%); in Jiangsu, it was 1600 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (-0.62%) [1] 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 128 yuan/ton on November 12, down 21 yuan from November 11 [1] - The spread of 01 - 05 was - 73 yuan/ton on November 12, up 4 yuan from November 11 [1] 3. Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream: The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively [1] - Downstream: - The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2980 yuan/ton and 2530 yuan/ton respectively [1] - The prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5076 yuan/ton and 5150 yuan/ton respectively [1] 4. Important Information - The opening price of the main contract 2601 of urea futures was 1643 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1667 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1634 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1655 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1652 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 256120 lots [1]