国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20251113

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Iron ore is expected to experience a high - level decline as the inventory accumulation pressure is realized [2][4]. - Rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese are all expected to have wide - range fluctuations. Cost provides bottom support for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [2][6][7][11]. - Coke is expected to follow the market downward adjustment [2][15]. - Coking coal's supply expectations are volatile, leading to a decline in valuation [2][16]. - Logs are expected to have repeated fluctuations [2][18]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Fundamentals: The futures price closed at 774.0 yuan/ton, up 11.0 yuan/ton or 1.44%. The open interest decreased by 29,119 lots. Imported and some domestic ore prices rose slightly, while some domestic ore prices remained unchanged. The basis and spreads showed different changes [4]. - News: Deputy Premier Liu Guozhong will attend the commissioning ceremony of the Simandou Iron Ore Project in Guinea [4]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamentals: For rebar RB2601, the closing price was 3,038 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan or 0.13%. For hot - rolled coil HC2601, the closing price was 3,255 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan or 0.22%. Open interest decreased for both. Spot prices were mostly stable, with some hot - rolled coil prices rising slightly. Basis and spreads changed accordingly [7]. - News: In October 2025, China's steel imports decreased. Steel production, inventory, and apparent consumption data in November showed different trends. The government supported commercial real estate REITs issuance. In September, steel exports increased while imports decreased [8][9]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamentals: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese showed different changes. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. Various spreads also had corresponding changes [11]. - News: A new silicon - iron furnace was put into production. There were price quotes and tender information for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. From January to October 2025, the national silicomanganese production was 903.96 million tons, with Inner Mongolia accounting for 48.5%. New production capacity is expected to be added from the end of 2025 to the first three quarters of 2026 [11][12][13]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Futures prices of coking coal JM2601 and coke J2601 rose slightly. Open interest decreased. Spot prices of coking coal and coke were mostly stable, with some coking coal prices rising. Basis and spreads changed [16]. - News: The National Development and Reform Commission organized an energy supply guarantee meeting for the heating season [16]. - Trend Intensity: - 1 for both, indicating a bearish trend [17]. Logs - Fundamentals: Log futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests showed different trends, with small daily and weekly changes. Spot prices of most log varieties remained stable [19]. - News: China lifted the suspension of importing US logs [21]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [21].