有色商品日报-20251113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated higher, with domestic refined copper imports remaining at a loss. The Fed Chairman has cooled the market's expectations of a December interest - rate cut, indicating growing internal differences within the Fed. The US House of Representatives will vote on a bill to end the government shutdown. Domestically, the central bank emphasizes the balance of multiple relationships in its monetary policy. LME copper inventories are stable, while Comex, SHFE, and BC copper inventories have increased. Downstream demand is restricted by high - price concerns. LME is seeking opinions on new permanent rules. With the boost from precious metals and the cautious optimism of the equity market, copper may be short - term bullish but will likely remain in a high - level oscillation in the off - season. Attention should be paid to overseas financial markets and domestic inventories [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina fluctuated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. Alumina prices have declined, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots has narrowed. Alumina plant profits are compressed, with occasional production cuts in loss - making capacities. Alumina inventories are increasing. The internal and external market situations are different. The electrolytic aluminum market is influenced by both long and short factors and will continue to adjust at a high level in the short term. Attention should be paid to the potential for market recovery due to northern heating season production restrictions and the long - AD spread after the spread narrows [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, nickel prices declined slightly. LME and SHFE nickel inventories decreased. The nickel - iron to stainless - steel industry chain shows weakening raw material support and rising stainless - steel inventories. In the new - energy industry chain, the discount coefficient has risen slightly, but the output of ternary precursors in November has decreased. With increasing inventory pressure, nickel prices may oscillate, and inventory changes should be monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Copper: Overnight price increase, import loss, complex macro - situation, inventory changes, demand constraints, policy impact, and short - term and long - term market trends [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight price fluctuations, price and discount changes in the spot market, profit compression and production cuts in alumina plants, inventory pressure, internal - external market differences, and short - term market adjustment [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight price decline, inventory reduction, weakening support in the nickel - iron to stainless - steel chain, mixed situation in the new - energy chain, inventory pressure, and oscillating price trend [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: Price changes in the market, inventory changes in multiple locations (LME, Comex, SHFE, etc.), and changes in other indicators such as LME0 - 3 premium and import profit and loss [1][3]. - Lead: Price changes in the average price, premium and discount, and other aspects, as well as inventory and import profit - and - loss changes [3]. - Aluminum: Price changes in different regions, inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories, and changes in premium and discount and import profit and loss [4]. - Nickel: Price changes in different nickel products, inventory changes in LME, SHFE, and social inventories, and changes in premium and discount and import profit and loss [2][4]. - Zinc: Price changes in the market, TC stability, inventory changes in LME and SHFE, and changes in premium and discount and import profit and loss [6]. - Tin: Price changes in the market, inventory changes in LME and SHFE, and changes in premium and discount and import profit and loss [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Spot Premium and Discount: Charts show the spot premium and discount trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][15]. - SHFE Near - to - Far - Month Spread: Charts present the near - to - far - month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [16][21][23]. - LME Inventory: Charts display the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [31][33][35]. - Social Inventory: Charts present the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series products from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - Smelting Profit: Charts show the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience and professional titles in the field of non - ferrous metals research, and are responsible for different research directions such as precious metals, aluminum - silicon, and lithium - nickel [50][51].