黑色商品日报-20251113

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon are expected to show narrow - range consolidation or oscillation in the short term. For example, steel is expected to have narrow - range consolidation, while other varieties are expected to oscillate [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - Steel: The rebar futures contract 2601 closed at 3038 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.43%) with a decrease of 55,700 in positions. Spot prices were stable with a slight increase, and trading volume remained low. National building material production decreased by 92,300 tons to 3.8784 million tons, social inventory decreased by 142,500 tons to 6.2415 million tons, factory inventory increased by 7,500 tons to 3.485 million tons, and apparent demand decreased by 19,000 tons to 4.0134 million tons. It is expected that the rebar futures market will continue narrow - range consolidation in the short term [1]. - Iron Ore: The main iron ore futures contract i2601 closed at 774 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (1.44%) with a decrease of 29,000 in positions. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil continued to decline, while that from other countries increased. The iron - making output decreased by 21,400 tons to 2.3422 million tons, and the loss range of steel mills continued to expand. The inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports and national steel mills increased. It is expected that the iron ore price will oscillate in the short term [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures contract 2601 closed at 1219 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.49%) with a decrease of 35,563 in positions. The price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi increased, while the price of Mongolian coal at the port decreased. The mine output is difficult to increase significantly in the short term, and the coke enterprises' restocking rhythm has slowed down. It is expected that the coking coal futures market will have wide - range oscillation in the short term [1]. - Coke: The coke futures contract 2601 closed at 1689.5 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan/ton (0.27%) with a decrease of 608 in positions. The spot price at the port increased. The production of coke enterprises is relatively stable, but the profit margin has shrunk, and some enterprises have increased maintenance. The blast furnace operation of steel mills is relatively stable, but the profitability has declined. It is expected that the coke futures market will have wide - range oscillation in the short term [1]. - Ferromanganese: On Wednesday, the ferromanganese futures price oscillated weakly, with the main contract closing at 5762 yuan/ton, down 0.41%. The mainstream steel procurement has new progress, and it is expected that the final price will be slightly lower than last month. The production has decreased slightly, the demand for steel procurement has decreased, the manganese ore price is firm, and the inventory of sample enterprises has reached a new high. It is expected that the adjustment range will be small [1]. - Ferrosilicon: On Wednesday, the ferrosilicon futures price oscillated weakly, with the main contract closing at 5490 yuan/ton, down 0.83%. A new factory has been put into production. The steel procurement inquiry price has decreased. The production cost has increased, but the production is still relatively high. The demand for steel procurement has decreased, and the inventory has reached a new high. It is expected to follow the overall trend of the black - commodity market and pay attention to market sentiment and steel procurement pricing [1]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads: The 1 - 5 month spreads and 5 - 10 month spreads of different varieties (such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc.) have different changes, with some increasing and some decreasing. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar was - 58.0, up 6.0 [4]. - Basis: The basis of different varieties and contracts also shows different changes. For example, the basis of the 01 rebar contract was 152.0, down 13.0 [4]. - Profit and Spreads between Varieties: The profit of rebar in different processes (such as long - process and short - process) and the spreads between different varieties (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc.) have different changes. For example, the rebar futures profit was - 126.9, down 7.4 [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - Main Contract Prices: It shows the historical closing prices of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [6][7][8][9][10][11][15]. - Main Contract Basis: It shows the historical basis of the main contracts of various black commodities from different years, such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [17][18][19][21][22][23][24]. - Inter - period Contract Spreads: It shows the historical spreads between different contracts (such as 01 - 05, 05 - 10) of various black commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [26][28][33][34][35][38][39]. - Inter - variety Contract Spreads: It shows the historical spreads between different varieties of main contracts, such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc. [44][45][46][47]. - Rebar Profit: It shows the historical profit of rebar in different processes, including futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [49][50][52]. 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - The black research team of Everbright Futures includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, Zhang Chunjie, etc., each with rich experience and professional qualifications in the black - commodity research field [54][55].