西南期货早间评论-20251113

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Treasury Bonds: Expect no trend - based market, maintain caution [6][7] - Stock Index Futures: Low risk of significant decline, consider buying at appropriate times [10][11] - Precious Metals: Short - term pricing is relatively full, take profit on previous long positions and then wait and see [12][13] - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The mid - term weakness of rebar prices is hard to change, and hot - rolled coil may follow the same trend. Look for high - level short - selling opportunities [14] - Iron Ore: The supply - demand pattern has weakened, and it may continue to be weak in the short term. Look for high - level short - selling opportunities [16] - Coking Coal and Coke: Look for opportunities to buy on dips [18] - Ferroalloys: In the short term, supply may be in excess. Consider low - level long - buying opportunities when the spot falls into the loss range again [20][21] - Crude Oil: The Baker Hughes rig count has increased, but the increase in US crude oil production is still a long - term task. OPEC's suspension of production increase supports oil prices. Temporarily wait and see [23][24] - Fuel Oil: Supply is expected to be sufficient, but there are also positive factors. Temporarily wait and see [25][27] - Polyolefins: Look for long - buying opportunities [28][29] - Synthetic Rubber: Expected to fluctuate [30][32] - Natural Rubber: Look for long - buying opportunities [33][34] - PVC: Pay attention to changes in the supply side [35][36] - Urea: The downside space is limited [37][38] - Para - Xylene (PX): May fluctuate and adjust, with support below. Participate within the range and pay attention to crude oil changes [39][40] - PTA: May fluctuate. Be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [41] - Ethylene Glycol: May be under pressure in the short term. Pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [42][43] - Short - Fiber: May fluctuate following costs. Control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [44] - Bottle Chips: Expected to fluctuate following the cost side. Control risks [45] - Lithium Carbonate: Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [46][47] - Copper: Expected to fluctuate at a high level [48][49] - Aluminum: Expected to run at a high level [50][52] - Zinc: Adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy [53][54] - Lead: Expected to fluctuate strongly [55][56] - Nickel: Expected to fluctuate strongly [58] - Tin: Expected to fluctuate [57] - Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal: For soybean meal, consider exiting long positions when it continues to rise; for soybean oil, look for long - buying opportunities in the low - cost support range [59][61] - Palm Oil: Consider buying on dips [62][63] - Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil: Consider a buy - near and sell - far strategy for rapeseed meal [64][65] - Cotton: Expected to run weakly [66][67] - Sugar: Expected to fluctuate [69][72] - Apples: Expected to run strongly [73][76] - Hogs: Consider short - selling on rebounds [77][78] - Eggs: Hold short positions [79][82] - Corn and Starch: For corn, wait and see; for corn starch, it may follow the corn market [83][85] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted 195.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 130 billion yuan [5] - Analysis: Macroeconomic data is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. Monetary policy is expected to be loose. Treasury bond yields are at a relatively low level. Expect no trend - based market [5][6] Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results [8] - Analysis: The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. Corporate profit growth is low. However, asset valuations are low, and the economy has resilience. Market sentiment has warmed up, and the risk of significant decline is low [10] Precious Metals - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the gold main contract closed down 0.33%, and the silver main contract closed up 1.62% [12] - Analysis: The global trade and financial environment is complex. The US labor market is slowing down, which is beneficial for precious metals. However, the recent increase has been large, and the pricing is relatively full [12] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak fluctuations [14] - Analysis: In the long - term, the real estate industry is in a downward trend, and rebar demand is decreasing. In the medium - term, it is the traditional demand season, but inventory pressure is high [14] Iron Ore - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded slightly [16] - Analysis: Iron ore demand is falling, supply is increasing, and port inventory has exceeded last year's level. The supply - demand pattern has weakened [16] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to correct [18] - Analysis: Coking coal supply is slightly tight, and demand is weak. Coke supply is decreasing, and demand from steel mills is also weakening [18] Ferroalloys - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract fell 0.41%, and the silicon - iron main contract fell 0.83% [20] - Analysis: Supply is in short - term excess, but costs are rising. Consider long - buying opportunities when the spot falls into the loss range [20][21] Crude Oil - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward [22] - Analysis: The increase in US crude oil production is difficult, Russian production is below the quota, and OPEC's suspension of production increase supports oil prices [22][23] Fuel Oil - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated upward but was blocked by the 5 - day moving average [25] - Analysis: Long - term supply is abundant, and inventory is increasing. There are both positive and negative factors [25][26] Polyolefins - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou mostly declined, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao fell [28] - Analysis: Terminal demand has increased due to e - commerce stockpiling, but new orders may decrease after the e - commerce event [28] Synthetic Rubber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose 1.51% [30] - Analysis: Raw material prices have fallen, supply is tight in some areas, and demand has slightly increased. Expected to fluctuate [30][31] Natural Rubber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract rose 0.56%, and the 20 - rubber main contract rose 0.12% [33] - Analysis: Supply is affected by typhoons, and demand from tire enterprises has slightly increased. Pay attention to production area conditions and demand expectations [33] PVC - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract fell 0.22% [35] - Analysis: The supply - demand pattern is still oversupplied, but the downward space is limited. Pay attention to exports and supply reduction [35][36] Urea - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the urea main contract rose 0.42% [37] - Analysis: Supply is increasing slightly, demand is affected by environmental protection, and profits are falling. Expected to decline slightly [37] Para - Xylene (PX) - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the PX main contract fell 0.32% [39] - Analysis: Short - term supply - demand structure has improved, and it may oscillate and adjust with support below [39][40] PTA - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the PTA2601 main contract fell 0.17% [41] - Analysis: Supply and demand are in a state of mismatch, processing fees are low, and it may oscillate [41] Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell 0.77% [42] - Analysis: Supply is slightly reduced, inventory is increasing, and it may be under pressure in the short term [42][43] Short - Fiber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2512 main contract fell 0.13% [44] - Analysis: Supply is at a relatively high level, demand is stable, and it may oscillate following costs [44] Bottle Chips - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the bottle chips 2601 main contract fell 0.35% [45] - Analysis: Raw material prices provide support, export growth is slowing down, and it may oscillate following the cost side [45] Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract fell 0.21% [46] - Analysis: Supply is at a high level, consumption is improving, and inventory is decreasing. Pay attention to consumption sustainability [46][47] Copper - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract rose 0.78% [48] - Analysis: Global copper mine supply is tight, demand is mixed, and it may oscillate at a high level [48] Aluminum - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract rose 0.85%, and the alumina main contract fell 0.25% [50] - Analysis: Aluminum supply is in a complex situation, demand is differentiated, and it may run at a high level [50][51] Zinc - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract rose 0.2% [53] - Analysis: Zinc concentrate processing fees are under pressure, demand is weak, and it may oscillate within a range [53] Lead - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract rose 0.8% [55] - Analysis: Lead concentrate processing fees are under pressure, supply recovery is affected, and demand has recovered slightly. It may oscillate strongly [55] Nickel - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract rose 2.24% [58] - Analysis: Supply is tight, demand has some resilience, and it may oscillate strongly [58] Tin - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main contract fell 0.01% [57] - Analysis: Supply and demand are in a complex situation, and it may oscillate [57] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract rose 0.03%, and the soybean oil main contract rose 0.44% [59] - Analysis: Brazilian soybean planting progress is slow, oil factory压榨量 is falling, and inventory pressure is still large [59][61] Palm Oil - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil fell after two days of gains [62] - Analysis: Malaysian palm oil exports are falling, inventory is at a high level, and it may decline seasonally. Consider buying on dips [62][63] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Market Performance: Canadian rapeseed rose slightly [64] - Analysis: There is no news of resuming the import of Canadian rapeseed. Inventory levels of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil are different. Consider a buy - near and sell - far strategy for rapeseed meal [64][65] Cotton - Market Performance: Domestic Zheng cotton fell slightly, and international cotton fell 0.7% [66] - Analysis: China's cotton production is expected to be high, and international cotton is under seasonal pressure. It may run weakly [66][67] Sugar - Market Performance: Zheng sugar oscillated, and international raw sugar rebounded 2% [69] - Analysis: Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, and China will face pressure from domestic and imported sugar. It may oscillate [69][72] Apples - Market Performance: Domestic apple futures oscillated at a high level [73] - Analysis: The opening price is higher than last year, inventory is lower, and the quality of late - maturing apples is poor. It may run strongly [73][76] Hogs - Market Performance: The national average hog price fell, and the main contract fell 0.55% [77][78] - Analysis: Supply pressure may increase in the second half of the month. Consider short - selling on rebounds [77][78] Eggs - Market Performance: The average price of eggs in the main producing areas fell, and the main contract fell 3.25% [79][82] - Analysis: Egg production is at a high level, but supply may improve marginally. Consumption may be weak. Hold short positions [79][82] Corn and Starch - Market Performance: Corn and corn starch main contracts rose slightly [83] - Analysis: New - season corn production is high, import may increase, and demand is slightly increasing. For corn, wait and see; for corn starch, it may follow the corn market [83][85]