蛋白数据日报-20251113

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean purchase margin is poor, and the purchase progress for the December - January shipping schedule is slow. In the short - term, the domestic market is expected to continue to follow the US market with a volatile and slightly stronger trend. Before the release of the USDA report, it will mainly be in a volatile adjustment phase. Future drivers depend on the USDA November supply - demand report data this Friday and South American weather [10]. 3. Summary by Related Content A. Basis and Spread Data - Basis: On November 12, the basis of the Dalian 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) was 61, down 5; Tianjin was down 5; Rizhao was - 39, down 35; Zhangjiagang was - 9, down 15; Dongguan was - 59, down 25; and Fangcheng was - 39, down 25. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 98, down 10 [6]. - Spread: The M1 - 5 spread was 209, down 9; RM1 - 5 was 62, down 17. The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 398, down 20; the main - contract disk spread was 565, up 11 [6][7]. B. Price and Profit Data - The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.0785, and the disk crushing profit was 220 yuan/ton, with no change. The estimated import soybean disk gross profit in 2025 was - 251 yuan/ton [7]. C. Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation - Supply: The USDA currently estimates the US soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio for the 2025/2026 season at 6.9%. The expected yield of 53.5 bushels/acre may be lowered, while the export forecast has room for an increase. There is a risk of relatively dry weather in southern Brazil in the next few weeks, and attention should be paid to the impact of the weak La Nina weather pattern. The purchase progress for the December - January shipping schedule is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [9][10]. - Demand: In the short - term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory, supporting feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss state, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the long - term supply. The downstream of soybean meal has been cautious in recent transactions, and the提货 performance has declined [10]. - Inventory: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels, and it is expected that inventory will start to decrease in November. The number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [10].