中辉黑色观点-20251113

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - For most varieties (including rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon), the overall sentiment is cautiously bullish, except for iron ore where it is recommended to stop loss on short positions [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel Products: After continuous declines, they are testing cost support. Rebar shows characteristics of weak supply and demand in the off - season, with a weakening of the support for raw materials from molten iron. Hot - rolled coil has a slight inventory pressure, and the demand support for raw materials is also weakening [3][4]. - Iron Ore: The supply is shrinking, and contradictions are accumulating. The short - term price is firm, with the possibility of an increase in molten iron production in the future, and attention should be paid to the implementation of steel mill maintenance [6]. - Coke: The expectation of the fourth price increase is strengthening, but coke enterprises are still mostly in a loss state. With the decline in molten iron production and more blast furnace maintenance, there is a certain short - term replenishment demand. The market may fluctuate after a rapid decline [9]. - Coking Coal: The current supply - demand pattern remains intact. Domestic coal mine production has slightly increased, with low inventory levels and sufficient pre - sales orders. The market may fluctuate after a rapid decline [12]. - Ferroalloys: The steel procurement in November has started. For ferromanganese, the supply has slightly decreased but is still at a high level, and the inventory increase has slowed down. For ferrosilicon, the production area's operating rate has increased, and the demand has weakened, with a significant increase in inventory [15]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Steel Products - Rebar - Variety View: Production and apparent demand have both decreased month - on - month, showing a weak supply - demand pattern in the off - season. Inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the decline is weaker than the seasonal pattern. The fundamental situation is generally balanced but on the weaker side. The support for raw materials from molten iron is gradually weakening [4]. - Disk Operation Suggestion: It has fallen to near the previous low, testing the support at 3000, and there may be fluctuations at low levels [5]. - Hot - rolled Coil - Variety View: Apparent demand and production have both declined, and inventory has increased slightly against the seasonal trend, indicating a certain inventory pressure. The demand support for raw materials from molten iron is weakening [4]. - Disk Operation Suggestion: It operates within a medium - term range, and there may be fluctuations after continuous short - term declines [5]. Iron Ore - Variety View: Molten iron production has decreased month - on - month, but there is an expectation of an increase due to the resumption of some blast furnaces. Steel mill maintenance information has increased, and attention should be paid to its implementation. Steel mills are reducing inventory while ports are accumulating inventory. The supply of imported iron ore has decreased, and the static fundamental situation is slightly bullish [6]. - Disk Operation Suggestion: Stop loss on short positions [7]. Coke - Variety View: The expectation of the fourth price increase is strengthening, and the profit of coke enterprises has slightly improved but is still mostly in a loss state. Molten iron production has declined again, steel mill profits are poor, and there is more blast furnace maintenance. However, the raw material inventory level is moderately low, and the short - term replenishment enthusiasm is okay. The market may fluctuate after a rapid decline [9]. - Disk Operation Suggestion: Cautiously bullish, and it is advisable to leave the market and wait and see [10]. Coking Coal - Variety View: The National Development and Reform Commission has deployed energy supply guarantee work for the heating season. Domestically, coal mine production has slightly increased, with low inventory levels and sufficient pre - sales orders. The overall shipment situation is still good. The current supply - demand pattern has not been broken, and the market may fluctuate after a rapid decline [12]. - Disk Operation Suggestion: Cautiously bullish, and it is advisable to leave the market and wait and see [13]. Ferroalloys - Ferromanganese - Variety View: The supply in the production area has slightly decreased but is still at a high level compared to the same period. Inventory has continued to increase from the previous period, but the increase rate has slowed down. The steel procurement in November has started, and a landmark steel mill plans to purchase 16,000 tons, a decrease of 500 tons compared to the previous month. Attention should be paid to the final pricing [15]. - Disk Operation Suggestion: The short - term cost side provides some support for the price, and it is cautiously bullish [16]. - Ferrosilicon - Variety View: The operating rate in the production area has continued to increase, the downstream demand has weakened marginally, and inventory has continued to increase significantly from the previous period [15]. - Disk Operation Suggestion: The short - term cost side provides some support for the price, but the fundamental situation has become looser. It is cautiously bullish [16].