金融期货早班车-20251113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium - long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties when prices are low as using stock index for long - position substitution has certain excess returns [3] - In the short - term, the outlook for bond futures is bullish, and the implied interest rate of ultra - long bonds at 2.2 has sufficient cost - effectiveness. In the medium - long term, with the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to conduct hedging operations on T and TL contracts when prices are high [4] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On November 12, the four major A - share stock indexes pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.07% to 4000.14 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.36% to 13240.62 points, the ChiNext Index declined 0.39% to 3122.03 points, and the STAR 50 Index decreased 0.58% to 1379.45 points. Market trading volume was 1964.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 49.1 billion yuan from the previous day. Among industry sectors, household appliances (+1.22%), comprehensive (+1.05%), and textile and apparel (+0.87%) led the gains, while power equipment (-2.1%), machinery and equipment (-1.23%), and computer (-1.04%) led the losses. In terms of market strength, IH>IF>IC>IM, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 1756/126/3561 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net capital inflows of - 22.8 billion, - 21.4 billion, 7.9 billion, and 36.3 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 3 billion, - 47 billion, - 1 billion, and +50 billion yuan respectively [2] 3.2 Stock Index Futures - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 116.58, 88.05, 17.91, and 1.5 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 13.9%, - 10.85%, - 3.44%, and - 0.44% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 20%, 17%, 27%, and 41% respectively [3] 3.3 Bond Futures - On November 12, interest - rate bonds showed a weak upward trend. Among active contracts, TS rose 0.01%, TF rose 0.03%, T rose 0.02%, and TL rose 0.09% [3] - For the current active 2512 contracts, the CTD bond of the 2 - year Treasury bond futures was 250012.IB, with a yield change of - 0.75bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.004, and an IRR of 1.54%; the CTD bond of the 5 - year Treasury bond futures was 250003.IB, with a yield change of - 0.25bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.034, and an IRR of 1.85%; the CTD bond of the 10 - year Treasury bond futures was 220017.IB, with a yield change of - 0.75bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.013, and an IRR of 1.6%; the CTD bond of the 30 - year Treasury bond futures was 210005.IB, with a yield change of - 0.5bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.013, and an IRR of 1.39% [4] - In terms of the money supply, the central bank injected 195.5 billion yuan and withdrew 65.5 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 130 billion yuan [4] 3.4 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that at the beginning of November, the import and export business climate was better than the same period, while the infrastructure business climate was worse than the same period [11]