银河期货每日早盘观察-20251113

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, and non - ferrous metals. It indicates that most markets will maintain a volatile trend in the short term, influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and macro - economic conditions. For example, the stock index futures market will remain volatile due to sector rotation and capital flow; the agricultural product market shows different trends in different varieties, with some facing supply pressure and others having potential price increases; the black metal and non - ferrous metal markets are affected by factors like raw material costs, production capacity, and international policies [19][20][25]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Core View: The market is volatile due to sector rotation. Large - cap indexes are stronger than small - cap indexes, and the technology sector shows signs of stabilizing. The short - term market will remain volatile [19][20]. - Trading Strategy: High - low trading in a high - level range; IM/IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; bullish spread options at low prices [20]. Treasury Bond Futures - Core View: The bond market continues to fluctuate with an obvious stock - bond seesaw effect. The yield downward space is limited, and the 30Y Treasury yield may have a top range of 2.20 - 2.25% [22]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see for single - side trading; hold short positions on the 30Y - 7Y term spread and try to go long on the T - contract inter - delivery spread [23]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - Core View: The supply pressure is improving, and the domestic near - month price has support, but the far - month has pressure. Rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate [25][26]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see for single - side and arbitrage trading; sell wide - straddle options [26]. Sugar - Core View: International sugar production in major regions may be lower than expected, and the international price has a bottom - grinding trend. The domestic market is expected to fluctuate in the short term and may face downward pressure in the long term [30][31]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in the range for the domestic market; wait and see for arbitrage and options [32]. Oilseeds and Oils - Core View: The increase in oil prices is limited, and they will maintain a volatile trend. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia and China shows different trends, and the supply and demand of soybean oil and rapeseed oil also vary [33][34][35]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see or trade in a high - low range; wait and see for arbitrage and options [35]. Corn/Corn Starch - Core View: The U.S. corn may fluctuate narrowly, and the domestic corn spot price is strong. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, but the upward space is limited [37][38]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on the 12 - contract corn on dips; wait and see for the 01 contract; wait for dips for the 05 and 07 contracts [38]. Live Hogs - Core View: The supply pressure increases, and the overall inventory is high. The short - term price may still face pressure [39][40]. - Trading Strategy: Short a small amount; wait and see for arbitrage; sell wide - straddle options [40]. Peanuts - Core View: The peanut spot price is strong, and the short - term market is expected to fluctuate strongly. The new - season peanut quality is lower, and the oil mill's procurement is limited [42][43]. - Trading Strategy: The 01 contract fluctuates at the bottom, and the 05 contract can try to go long lightly; wait and see for arbitrage; sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [43]. Eggs - Core View: The demand improves slightly, and the egg price rebounds slightly. The current inventory of laying hens is high, and the short - term price increase space is limited [44][45][47]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see in the short term and consider going long at low prices for far - month contracts; wait and see for arbitrage and options [47]. Apples - Core View: The new - season apple production decreases, and the cold - storage inventory is expected to be low. The market may fluctuate greatly when the new inventory data is released [48][49]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see; wait and see for arbitrage and options [50]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - Core View: The new cotton supply increases, and the demand enters the off - season. Considering the macro - economic situation, the short - term cotton price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger [52]. - Trading Strategy: The U.S. cotton is expected to fluctuate, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger; wait and see for arbitrage and options [53]. Black Metals Steel - Core View: The raw material cost is under pressure, and the steel price fluctuates in a range. The construction steel production decreases more, and the inventory is still decreasing. The hot - rolled coil performs better than the rebar [57]. - Trading Strategy: Maintain a range - bound trend; go long on the coil - rebar spread at low prices; wait and see for options [58]. Coking Coal and Coke - Core View: The market sentiment cools down, and the price fluctuates and adjusts. The short - term driving force is not obvious, and there may be an opportunity to go long after a pullback in the medium term [59][60]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see in the short term; go long after a pullback in the medium term; hold a reverse spread for coking coal 1/5; wait and see for options [61]. Iron Ore - Core View: Adopt a bearish approach. The supply is at a high level, and the domestic demand is weak, so the ore price is expected to fluctuate bearishly [62][63]. - Trading Strategy: Go short; wait and see for arbitrage and options [63]. Ferroalloys - Core View: The cost provides some support, and the previous short positions can be reduced. The supply and demand of silicon iron and manganese silicon are weakening on the margin [64][65]. - Trading Strategy: Reduce previous short positions at low prices; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [65]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - Core View: The short - term strong - side volatile pattern continues. The U.S. government is about to restart, and the market is worried about fiscal stimulus and the change of the Fed's dovish camp, increasing the attractiveness of precious metals [66][68][69]. - Trading Strategy: Hold long positions based on the 5 - day moving average; wait and see for arbitrage; hold collar call option strategies [69]. Copper - Core View: The short - term trend is volatile. The macro - economic situation is favorable, but the supply and demand situation is complex. The copper price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range [70][71][72]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see; the long - term trend is bullish, and a low - long strategy can be adopted; the ratio may rebound; wait and see for options [72]. Alumina - Core View: Pay attention to production cuts. The supply and demand are significantly surplus, and the price may rebound after substantial production cuts [73][74][76]. - Trading Strategy: The price fluctuates weakly at the bottom; wait and see for arbitrage and options [76]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Core View: The price is strong due to the resonance of macro - economic and micro - economic factors. The overseas supply - demand is tight, and the domestic demand has resilience [77][78][79]. - Trading Strategy: Maintain a strong trend; wait and see for arbitrage and options [79]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Core View: The price fluctuates at a high level with the aluminum price. The cost provides support, but the demand is affected by the high price [80]. - Trading Strategy: The price moves strongly with the aluminum price; wait and see for arbitrage and options [80]. Zinc - Core View: Pay attention to the export volume. The supply may be eased, and the price fluctuates in a range. The upward space is limited [82][83]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a range; hold the SHFE long - LME short arbitrage; wait and see for options [84]. Lead - Core View: Pay attention to the change of domestic social inventory. The supply is recovering, and the demand is weakening, so the price is under pressure [86][87]. - Trading Strategy: Try to short lightly at high prices; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [87]. Nickel - Core View: The cost is loosening, and the price fluctuates weakly. The supply is abundant, and the market is pessimistic about the quota adjustment [88][89]. - Trading Strategy: Short on rebounds; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [89]. Stainless Steel - Core View: The supply and demand are both weak, and the raw materials are under pressure. No specific trading strategy is provided in the given text [90].